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To: jan m. who wrote (19481)	6/27/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

Cowles / Swirbul discussion mentioned... 'Now, the three most technically-informed and personally credible sources of utility Y2K information available to me are (1) this friend, (2) Rick Cowels, and (3) Fred Swirbul. ' 'SnowDog75 wrote in message <1998062504475500.AAA29794@ladder03.news.aol.com>... >I caught Sen. Bennett chatting with Pat Robertson on CBN tonight. He told Pat >that he's "fairly optimistic" that the power will be on come 1/1/2000 and >"cautiously optimistic" that the phones and communication systems will >function. I'm not saying whether or not I believe him, I'm merely passing the >info to the group. Interesting, this is the _same_ Senator who said a couple weeks ago he thought there was an 80% chance of regional blackouts and brownouts. A few days after that pronouncement by the Senator, I discussed it with a close friend who works on Y2K with a local utility. For what it's worth -- and I know some folks on this NG will dismiss this as Pollyannish -- he personally thinks (1) his own company is doing very well with their Y2K plan, and (2) that a serious outage of NEPOOL is very unlikely. He also agreed with me that EMS and SCADA systems were the biggest Y2K problems for most utilities. Now, the three most technically-informed and personally credible sources of utility Y2K information available to me are (1) this friend, (2) Rick Cowels, and (3) Fred Swirbul. Of these three, Fred strongly believes most large utilities _will_ have the lights on in Y2K, as does my friend -- who does expect many smaller rural and municipal power companies will have troubles. Now, Rick is somewhat more pessimistic than Fred, but has said many times that he expects at least islands of reliable power come Y2K because he knows _some_ utiltities are doing the right things and will be ready. Rick does think there's a good chance of regional outages, but he believes most places will get power back fairly soon. While has hasn't to my knowledge made any numerical estimates as to durations and probabilities, reading between the lines of what he has said publicly I believe Rick is thinking mostly in terms of days/hours/weeks rather than in terms of weeks/months/years. Also, while Rick and Fred do have different personal views on what's likely to happen, each has said things -- both in public postings and in personal email -- indicating that each has a considerable degree of personal respect for the other's technical expertise. In one email, Rick told me he has found Fred to be an excellent sounding board for his own thoughts on Y2K, and they talk regularly on the phone. _____ Subject: Re: Bennett on CBN Date: Thu, 25 Jun 1998 09:24:39 -0400 From: "Matthew D. Healy, Ph.D." <Matthew.Healy@yale.edu> Organization: Yale University Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000 References: 1

To: jan m. who wrote (19481)	6/27/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Stuart Schreiber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

Jan, the problem with the CC was the poor questions asked. Typically, well crafted questions will allow company officials to elaborate on many new things. An answer to a good question can be much more revealing than a legally crafted statement. Rest assured, CNBC's commentators will ask better questions. I look for impressive responses from Mr. Jenkins. stu