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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jawd who wrote (7862)	6/27/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: Andeveron	Respond to of 164687

>> AMZN is perceived as the flagship of internet stocks. Sink the flagship and what have you got? Pearl Harbor on internet stocks. << I don't perceive AMZN as a flagship for internet stocks. I see it as a retailer with an enviable position and brand name on the internet. If it tanks, it is doubtful that it will take everyone with them. There are simply too many companies, too much diversity and too much money riding on stocks such as YHOO, BRCM, DCLK, etc. These companies are fueling the growth of the internet and one single entity such as AMZN won't control their destinies. >> Extemely unusual circumstances, but the internet is a once in a lifetime thing and its happening now for the first time. << Trading internet stocks has been one of the most profitable experiences in my 5 years. I was used to $1 and $2 gains in 3-4 months before this. Now we see $8 moonshots in hours. Nothing like it.

To: jawd who wrote (7862)	6/27/1998 8:16:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

If my theory is correct, the best that shorts can hope for is that the MM's will keep AMZN where it is, around 85 - 95. This, to avoid instigating the total collapse of the internet sector. In fact, I think it is far more likely to gracefully finish its run by hovering at this level for a year or so, than to either sink or rise immediately. Jawd, I understand your theory and agree with your statements. I am suspect the MMs can keep this stock in the 80s. Of course, I never thought it would get here too. There clearly is a lot of hype without fundamentals to back it up. This has been going on for a long time. I do agree the internet is a new area but the investing public may step back and finally look this over. Glenn

To: jawd who wrote (7862)	6/27/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164687

<<If my theory is correct, the best that shorts can hope for is that the MM's will keep AMZN where it is, around 85 - 95. This, to avoid instigating the total collapse of the internet sector.>> I'm not so sure....for one thing, MM's don't have the kind of power you are suggesting...sure they can manipulate short term by reading the buy and sell orders, but keeping AMZN between 85 and 95....doubt it. If this was a true valuation of the company, (which it is not!), then perhaps MM's could manipulate the price somewhat. I would offer a different opinion. What the bulls have been counting on is continuous announcements of new business ventures...The problem is that AMZN is not capitalized to go in many directions at the same time...They are being constrained by that lack of working capital right now w/ the 2 businesses they are in....(neither of which has a very high profit margin). So, they can (1) grow without raising capital (at a significantly slower pace than current projections), (2) they can borrow more money, or (3) they can float more stock... Growth internally funded would be so constraining that the bulls would head for the hills and AMZN would drop like a rock! If they borrow more $ to venture yet into different lines of business, this will significantly delay profitability (which I am still doubtful that they will ever reach)...the biggest argument the bulls have ever made for this company is that it is a concept stock. This may eventually be its undoing if and when investors realize that it never will make any money! Their most likely scenario would be to take advantage of that large capitalization and issue stock! This, of course, is dilutive and likely to undermine the stock price in the short run. Even if they try to place the stock into friendly hands, it is doubtful someone will be willing to pay up to these lofty levels....If they sell stock at a discount they will simply be acknowledging what the bears already know; this company is overpriced..... I think AMZN has done a fantastic job convincing folks that it has a bright future...and perhaps in the long run they are right. The problem is, they will be experiencing significant growth pains in the intermediate future and I don't think anyone will be able to levitate this stock for the next year..... My guess is that YHOO and AOL and other companies have differing degrees of capital shortfall and do not necessarily have to suffer from the same fate, but may very well..... I could be wrong but I think the high wire act is near an end! Mike