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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (3576)	6/28/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Scotsman	Respond to of 4697

I find it very interesting that, from what I have read, memory prices are plummeting yet overall silicon demand continues to grow. Where is it all going? And I am not so sure that this hurts in the long run. Less memory produced means less supply. Demand continues to be strong and will increase over time, especially is Microsoft continues to dominate as their Windows upgrades tend to be memory hogs. I think the basic problem is that 4 or 5 years ago everyone and their neighbor decided to get into the memory business. From what I understand, its relatively easy to make and cheap. This was done especially in Asia, where many fabs were built using government money with the intent of losing money to gain market share. Unfortuately for them, since their economies have collapsed, they can't do that anymore, so many of the weak sisters have gone by the wayside with plant closings and stoppages of future expansion. The strong, such as Taiwan, have survived and are continuing to grow. Other companies, such as TI, have realized they don't need to be in a low profit commodity business like memory and are getting out to concentrate on more profitible business. I still think that this will be a net positive in the future. The shutdown of these memory, fabs, and wafer plants, either planned or in operation, will do nothing except increase the angle on the supply side of the supply/demand chart. Demand will, at some point, hit supply. Since the supply has dried up, prices should go through the roof. But I'm an optimist.

To: Maverick who wrote (3576)	6/28/1998 2:12:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Actually that's not true. The fact that DRAM prices are down is why MU is in the gutter. The glut of silicon wafers is only indirectly related. Just as Samsung, MU, etc over-expanded their DRAM capacity, SEH, Sumitomo, Wacker, and MEMC over-expanded their wafer production capacity. It is true that if there were more demand for DRAM chips, there would be more demand for silicon, but the accelerated conversion from 4MB to 16mb to 64mb in two years (it usually takes about 4-5 years) probably has more to do with the silicon surplus than a lack of demand for memory. Actually low memory prices lead to more demand for memory, and thus more demand for silicon. Carl

To: Maverick who wrote (3576)	6/28/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: Elvis Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Still, TI is receiving Micron stock for its plants in Richardson, Texas, and Italy and for its interests in joint-venture factories in Japan and Singapore. As the largest shareholder in Micron, TI still will have access to any technical information it needs, analysts said. While TI is getting the DRAM business off their books, they're keeping their fingers in the cookie jar. Good story from the Post. I was impressed. Duke