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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20947)	6/28/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

EK, your thoughts on the benefits derived from the abundance of information parallel mine. But, since the genie is out of the bottle, we got to ride the tiger. <how's that for a mixed metaphor?> GM

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20947)	6/28/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gene, RE: My point is that all the extra information may surprisingly UNhelpful in the short term, and our inflated returns, which we think are occurring because of our intelligence and our access to more information, may only be happening because of one of the greatest bull markets in history. So what makes you think that this extraordinary bull market and its' short corrections and massive gains aren't being driven by the dynamics of the available information flow to investors. Yes, I know that the "Boomers" are saving for retirement via the market and the funds, but that is not the entire market. Funds are also being analysed by consumers via the information flow to select the investment vehicle that best suits their strategy. I agree that sometimes the information is somewhat overwhelming but one must "read between the lines" and analyze/filter the information and make decisions based on relevant available info that could, or will, ultimately have an impact on when and how we invest. At least now we have the ammo to fight the war, before we were using sticks and luck to time our investment strategies. I'd be willing to bet that no one would be willing to give up their new "tools" and return to the "good ole days" without a fight. To steal an analogy that I have seen on a bumper sticker:" You can have my computer when you pry it from my cold, dead hands." Just my opinion, BB

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20947)	6/28/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

The greatest bull market in history has the effect of making even the complete idiot look like a genius if all he or she had done was to remain fully invested in an index fund since 1982 and had never thought about the market one day in his or her life since making that decision. It has paid big time to be brain dead!

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20947)	6/28/1998 10:23:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

well put eugene, usefull info has increased by x5 total info has increased by x50 need to upgrade the bullshit filter, to cope with the increased noise to signal ratio the bull market, the net, and low commissions have created a class of investing addicts. Japan went cold turkey in 1990, and is still in rehab. The question is: are we where Japan was in 1989, or 1980? Do we have one month or 5 years of asset inflation still ahead of us? The wisest thing anyone can answer is: "I don't know". There is a huge amount of effort put into trying to figure out things that are essentially unknowable: when is the next recession, what will the fed do next, how many DRAMs do consumers want next year, what will AMAT's EPS be in 1999, etc. My answer is to find the highest quality companies, and only invest in them when sentiment about them is extremely negative. And if the day comes when I can't find a single company like that, then I'll just hold cash, till I can. A Japanese investor in the 1980s would have done OK if he'd only bought companies like Toyota.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20947)	6/29/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gene, Well said. Reminds me of this phrase, that I read ages ago... "He who the market destroys, it first makes confident." Uuuuehhh (Lucy's sound when something really makes her pause), that's enough to keep us paranoid and worrying a bit, I guess. And btw, I bought more ASYT at 12-1/2 on Friday. (Just this morning, found that the order was filled). I figure sometime in the next three years, this purchase will make sense, barring a global meltdown. But, I'm still waiting patiently on AMAT and others. one more thing, I saw that Merrill raised their target on AOL from 100 to 120/sh... and mentioned something along the lines that it is one of the cheapest internet stock plays. From the way the stock has been acting, they are apparently right about AOL and I am wrong (i thought it was overpriced at 80). One thing about AOL, they are discontinuing anything I liked in the stock research area. No more First Call, no more Morningstar... and it's slower than my grandmother. I don't get it. If Sara didn't use it, we'd give it the boot. If you've got this one figured out, please share. Very interesting comments from Scott Black in Barron's this week... #2 man at KLAC says what it will take to turn the industry is a supply/demand balance in DRAMs....