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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (20956)	6/28/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Agree with both of your posts, but I think that a further multiple expansion is possible, if Asia heals, and rates stay low. Money flows will stay huge in this scenario, leading to pe's of 30. Dow earnings could grow to 1000+ in about 10 years, which is about 8% yearly growth. There are many reasons to be very optimistic in the short run(10 years) When the multiple contracts back to the norm of 15 with declining earnings, or single digits as in previous panics, the national pain will be immense. If you know it has to come, and you take a glancing blow instead of a direct hit, you can have your pick of the greatest companies on earth, because they will be given away.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (20956)	6/29/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Respond to of 70976

OT/OT Re: "The big money in this market has been made. One of the largest components of the market gains over the past 25 years has been the multiple expansion on the S & P. It has gone from 7x in 1973-1974 to nearly 24x, an all time historical high! So the only chance for future gains in the market is earnings growth unless we are going to pay higher multiples. If this happens, then we are playing the greater fool game. Earnings growth is going to be about 6% to 8% going forward. All this talk about Dow 10,000 this year seems far fetched." Is that you talking or did someone steal your password? And here's some bear food for you, earnings growth for this year is expected by some to be ~ 4.5%.