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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6082)	6/29/1998 9:52:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 10921

>>Based on my limited knowledge of the Tankan report, it appears that corporate Japan is conceding the Mar to June period. June to Sept looks more upbeat per current projections. If true, then are we at the "bottom" now? Counting on recovery later this calendar yr, should we all be rushing out to buy our favorite semi eq stock? << I don't see nearly enough blood in the streets yet. Even if you assume Japan has stabilized, there's still the DRAM glut and the weak PC markets to contend with. The only forecasts I've seen that call for a recovery this year are from sell-side analysts, who are somewhat suspect in my book. Chip industry analysts whose underlying logic I trust are pushing the capital spending (and therefore equipment) recovery back until at least early 1999, "if everything goes well," and late 1999 if it doesn't. Katherine

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6082)	6/29/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

>>the LTCB numbers are obviously all suspect. As of end of Mar, they supposedly have a unrealized securities loss of 240B yen. That alone make the 26 trillion yen asset a blue sky number. How much more "unrealized" stuff are in the books?<< When Hokkaido Takushoku Bank failed last fall, it turned out to have 8 times the bad loans previously reported. Similar problems at LTCB would cause a large fraction of their assets to evaporate. Reputedly only 69% of disclosed bad loans are covered by reserves, too. Interesting article on the subject in today's WSJ, page A12. Besides the above statistics, the article notes that LTCB lost more than $2 billion last year (pre-tax), on revenues of $9.54 billion, and its stock is essentially worthless, having fallen from 600 yen last September to 50 yen last week. Katherine