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To: Alan Edgett who wrote (29034)6/29/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Marshall  Respond to of 33268
 
Bravo Alan. Yes - SCON's still tucked away in my portfolio.
It took the market a while to figure out just how good the product was
in performance as well as saving companies money.



To: Alan Edgett who wrote (29034)6/30/1998 8:35:00 AM
From: drakes353  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33268
 
Alan:

Their cash position (as far as i know) sits at a little over $3M, which is also their ANNUAL burn rate in prior years with no commercial revenues, so i don't see them running out of cash in three months.

As of March 28, 1998 cash & equivs stood at $3.728 million. For the quarter ending March '98 cash burn was $2.328 million. If they continued to burn cash at the same rate, probably a fair assumption since they are trying to gear up the commercial side of their biz, that puts us at cash of $1.4 million as of today. They will be out of cash in a little less than two months (something like 54 days.)

Further, they have a viable product in a booming industry that is only a little premature (12-18 months? to fruition). They're gov
contracts though declining from year ago levels will in no way fall below $6M which is significant enough to keep burn rate of above.


You need to look at what's happening with the burn rate as they try to make a go of the commerical side. Sounds like you're basing much on this on last year's numbers.

They have NO debt and sales are maturing, so if needed cash could be obtained without dilution if sales progress to 500k-1m a quarter by early next year.

The last offering diluted you by around 13%, the next will be dilutive as well. You should be hearing about it sometime in the next month.

I'm not sure I 'd buy at $6 1/4, but unless you are into $1-2 dollars for a short move (I don't make these types of trades), there's little chance we'll see $3 if this "sale" is installed as billed. Recall, there's 14 trials currently underway, this is the second order from a seperate company and at $40k per unit = roughly $640,000 in commercial revenues isn't shabby for the sales department (certainly one of these a quarter will ensure resources for the near-term).

Hmmm, trials, eh? Where have I heard that before? Look at the gross margin on their commercial biz for the Q ended March:

Commercial product revenues 213,000
Cost of commercial revenues 1,033,000

Net (820,000)

Breakeven looks to be a long way off, especially if they aren't growing sales sequentially.

I've seen this movie before, good luck.

drakes353