To: Geoff who wrote (1895 ) 6/30/1998 3:57:00 PM From: Xpiderman Respond to of 6439
PHILIP MORRIS COS. (MO) 39 5/8 + 7/16 In today's Stock Brief we profiled the midyear "dogs of the DJIA." Well, the big dog is Philip Morris. While the DJIA is up 13.3% year-to-date, MO is off 12.4% (including today's jump). Aside from being the lowest priced stock in the Dow 30, MO is also the highest yielding (4.0%). The reasons for MO's poor performance so far this year are well documented, as the company/industry remains under siege in the courtroom and on Capital Hill. However, is the market overreacting the bad press. A look at the numbers suggests to us that the answer to that question is yes. Valuing the company's very sizable food and beverage business units (in addition to its financial services segment) on a par with other leading companies within those industries, we get a value of nearly $34. This means that the market is assigning a value to the entire tobacco business of about $6 a share, even though domestic tobacco makes up a minority percentage of total tobacco sales. So even if you assume that the entire domestic business will go up in smoke, the additional downside risk at current levels would appear to be minor. And with most of the bearish news already priced into the stock, the potential for upside surprises is great. Imagine how the stock would respond to news that it was splitting into two units - tobacco and non-tobacco. Finally, on a technical front, MO is testing minor resistance at 40. A close above this level would target a near-term test of the 44-45 region... While there is no question the stock will remain vulnerable to legal/political shocks, this dog could turn out to be a shining star within the next 12-months. Per Briefing.com