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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (10729)	6/30/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb	Respond to of 18691

Barb, the secret is when you start seeing only "end buyers" and shorts posting on a thread, the "smart" money having left. TAVA heading in that direction fast.

To: Mama Bear who wrote (10729)	6/30/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Anyone know anything about HEC, Harken Energy? Zeev Hed was asked to look at the company, an AMEX firm engaging in oil exploration, and found that it has floorless convertibles outstanding. The stock has ranged from 4 1/2 to 7 1/2 over the past year, and is now at 5. I haven't researched it, but Zeev has often been right about a company's pending decline, based on floorless convertibles. Furthermore, one of the longs posted this about the company's CEO: He is universally regarded as an honest and truthful person.... I would find it incredulous that an astute business person ... would sign off on anything that was not in the best interests of all concerned. Speak with him and you will have all your questions answered (he does not dodge the hard questions). When I see posts like this, I would like to believe them. I would like to believe there are CEO's who are decent and honest, and that I can trust with what little is left of my hard-earned money. -- But it's not so easy anymore.

To: Mama Bear who wrote (10729)	6/30/1998 7:40:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 18691

Barbara, > I came to this understanding from my experience of being an "end buyer" in 1996 Nothing like the perspective of a long who has been burned by her own irrational hopes and dreams. I've been there too on a few myself. After a while it makes you look back and realize how the fall was your own, not somebody elses. In the end, somewhat like a Greek or Shakespearean tragedy. After it's all over, you realize that the cause was your own pride or arrogance. Most of us don't die at the end, so can come back with that new knowledge to play again. Unfortunately, some of the pride and arrogance is SO extreme these days that some people probably will be completely wiped out. mg