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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (1328)	6/30/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 44573

Bob, I'm jumping back and forth between paperwork, reading, looking at the market, checking data and the internet. I'm sorry if I can't respond as quickly as you like but if at all possible I like to take the time to think out answers to questions such as the ones you bring up. Not easily done when I'm rushed. As a matter of fact, I'm taking an hour or two off to step out. Currently, this market should have been shorted around the 1150 level----obvious with hindsight---basis the SP8U. I't now sort of flaky for me, as I think the view that this is the result of the minor military action in Iraq is past history. I think the market is more concerned with the poor showing of the Greenback today. However---the risk of establishing a short here is that it's on support----breaking it the next S appears to be 1132/5. But the intraday trend could spike it back to the high 40 range before bringing it down. Certainly the end of the quarter buying could bring it up in the late innings and either way---high 40s or late hour buying would suggest to me an entry for a short. In the interim, I am getting some fresh air into my lungs and so I hope to get back to this post and your prior one later in the day.

To: Robert Graham who wrote (1328)	6/30/1998 9:05:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Well, I tried to trade on screen the way I normally trade just to give you an idea. Perhaps you did not follow it but that's the recent concept of this thread. I really did make those trades. Anyway, the "true trend" is something that you have to detach yourself from. If the market is trending up but you think it should be down then you will have a problem. I think that's what the conceptual problem is for the day trader. Exempting the problems of internal thoughts about where the market "should" go versus where it does go. The successful day trader has an idea where it "should" go but trades where it IS going, if possible. Anyway, your author seems t be very good at what s/he is doing but there are so many caveats..... <So my question to you is first, what do you do to seperate the "true" trends from price action that is likely not to end up as a trend? Also, is it possible for a trader to demonstrate a workable degree of accuracy using the above price and time technique. This is not to say that there will be times this approach will not work. I am sure he has a method to exit a losing trade.> I think you must compartmentalize the trend in terms of the boundaries you have placed on it. That is to say, you have decided to trade the trend intraday. So, the trend could change depending on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 18, minute ticks and so forth. What is going to be your boundaries? This fellow mentions shorter tick frames. Using shorter ticks your losses will be less and so will be your profits. It's a tough call, Bob. My experience is that it's not where you enter but where you exit. How do I tell someone where to exit? Good question. I think I know? But I can't tellya. Not because I don't wish to, just because it's not one of those things that accepts a yes or no answer. EDIT If you checked out my posts today, I said this morning I was taking a break and coming back to sell the rally. Then I said when I would sell it and covered as I went along. I did not do so bad, did I? I did not write a book about it but at least you saw me do it.