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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DJBEINO who wrote (22955)	6/30/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Post from MF: In keeping with my loyalty to the common investor I am posting this now from AOL..... Subject: Directories: The End Game Is Crystal Clear. Date: Sun, Jun 28, 1998 23:44 EDT From: Ida5683 Message-id: Before we get too carried away trying to fathom the outcome of Schmidt's meeting - cooperation? - with Gates, let's first keep things in perspective. Schmidt and so many others on the new frontiers of technology know one thing first and formost: The Internet will win. The internet will conquer. The internet, as we know it, is the greatest leveling force that man has ever created. The only way to succeed is to "let the force be with you". And here Gates is thinking, since "I AM the force...it must be with me, etc." In today's technology terms, "letting the force be with you" means embracing open systems: witness IBM's move to support Apache; the rise of Linux, etc. Novell's "open solutions" approach fits quite nicely into this strategy. To be connected you mush "stay open". We're talking cross-platform interfaces, higher lanquages that link disparate systems both in public and private switched fiber, landline and wireless analog and digital worlds. Microsoft's victory last week was weak. The DOJ can't manage innovation and development. No case there. The bigger case still lies ahead. For Microsoft to rally so much only confirms its a fools game when it comes to pricing stocks AFTER the news. Fade, fade, fade would be my call. Microsoft is currently in a worse position that it was when the internet boom first hit in '94-96. In phase #1, being without a browser, without a strategy wasn't all that difficult. It just meant waiting 6-12 months and either going for the cream or kill with #1 Netscape, depending on the outcome of the negotiations. There was always a second or third browser choice. Today, things are much different. The internet has already defined itself: it seeks, thrives and accepts non-proprietary solutions requiring bandwidth, open protocols and open standards. But the end game is NOT the internet. That would be like saying the end game is the big grocery store we all go to. At our big grocery stores, everyone knows where the cereal, meat, baby food and is located. That's the internet. Yahoo and all the rest help us to define these macro shelfspaces for "everyman". Before we had the internet, we were still shopping at our neighborhood stores: local PCs, local LANs, etc. Now we have the world potentially at our fingertips. I underline potentially because the REAL game is still in getting everything else connected. The end game is in being able to access, manage and control inputs/outputs to everything else. The end game is DIRECTORIES. Think the internet was a wild ride? Let's not kid ourselves. The real wild ride is still yet to come. The Internet was the EASY phase. Why are portals being bid up? Because the real value - THE END GAME - still resides behind these doors, inside the systems and networks at the local, regional and corporate level. Every Tom, Dick and Harry is desparate to get a front row seat - shelf space - to make sure they don't get left behind in Phase #2. When you bet on Novell today, you are betting on one thing: that there is a far greater probability that everything else will get connected before Microsoft succeeds in destroying everything else. What kind of choice is this? Well, first off, when you invest in anything, you must believie in the power of capitalism - ie. the power of humbly giving and serving - which will over time work to creatively destroy and eat its own past stars and success stories. The power that fuses the internet today is defined by giving and receiving unselfishly. Contrast this with Microsoft's power: which has inverted into the pure force of control. By controlling the platform they control the standards that define the success or failure of any software application that runs on that platform. Microsoft takes more than it gives back. Pure and simple, in a world where there's a technology - the internet - that proves the spiritual truism on a daily basis - "give and you share receive more" - Microsoft thinks it can negate this truism. Good luck Bill. Enjoy your $57 billion in phantom profits. NT will be caught big time with its collective pants down: no working, robust, bugfree directory - ie, no clothes. Scalable NT enterprise solutions are few and far between these days. Higher execs that bought Gate's PR and went with NT will find themselves severely compromised if they don't go with a robust, working directory NOW - not later. You're enterprise value will be severely compromised if you "have to wait" for Bill to deliver in 2-4 years. In '94-95, when he was in a much less of a bind without a browser, all Gate's had to do was just pick a competing horse - browser - and accellerate the expansion of his monopoly power to that race. Now he can't get away with this behavior. Worse yet, there is no other game in town outside of Novell. Much of Novell's future rests with NDS. NDS is the bridge that will get everything connected. Novell's investment in directory technologies will make all networks connected and smart. Hang tough Eric. Your end game is THE end game: all crystal clear. Good luck! Ida5683