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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (5674)	6/30/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: wooden ships	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 42834

I2: To recall it, Brinker, over the weekend, did not discount the possibility of a protracted economic depression affecting the Asian economies going forward. Brinker noted that the roster of the largest Japanese banking firms features horrific bad-loan to asset ratios ranging up to 300%+ whereas the same ratio peaked at 58% during the height of the savings and loan debacle in the early 1990's in the US. The extent of reckless overvaluations in the Japanese property market, the source of a good portion of these bad loans, was also addressed on the MoneyTalk show. Indeed, during the real estate mania in Japan of some years ago (when land was being sold by the square inch) it was Alan Abelson of Barron's who calculated that the acreage under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo City was worth the equi- valent of the total value of all real estate in the State of Florida. Brinker, in terms as harsh as those of Nobel Prize winner Paul Samuelson, decried the current failure of Japan to address its serious financial difficulties and condemned its systemic corruption. It is no wonder that Brinker expresses concern for the potential of an Asian depression. Japan with its population of about 125 million souls and one-half the GDP of the United States is, without question, the economic linchpin of that region; a very severe retrenchment or collapse of that economy would doubtless drive that area of the world into the throes of depression.

To: Investor2 who wrote (5674)	6/30/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Bill Shepherd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I2...maybe Bob will recommend that investors shift their 5 percent emerging market allocation into UTEK! Wouldn't that be a hoot! This may satisfy your desire to buy low, anyway. Of course, we don't really know if UTEK is low or not, do we?? All kidding aside (yes, I am kidding), I agree with your concern...emerging markets seem low right now...the BIG question is whether they have more upside potential than downside. The thought of all those billions in bad loans is a scary thought, wouldn't you say?? But, let's look on the bright side...the S & L crisis of the late 80's was followed by a fantastic US bull market (though I can't be sure those two events are correlated.) At any rate, I'm satisfied with my emerging market allocation presently sitting in cash. I can always jump back in when the murky water clears up a bit. Good luck...Bill S