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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (5675)	6/30/1998 9:14:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 42834

Truman: Excellent post. Re: "It is no wonder that Brinker expresses concern for the potential of an Asian depression." Yes, IMHO this will be his rationale if he decides to exit. There is no quick recovery in view. There is no "V" shaped recovery in his opinion. He probably sees Japan, Part II. And if he saw Japan, Part I, then chances are that he may well be right in seeing Japan, Part II.

To: wooden ships who wrote (5675)	6/30/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 42834

Japan In Relation to the US Equity Markets <<It is no wonder that Brinker expresses concern for the potential of an Asian depression. Japan with its population of about 125 million souls and one-half the GDP of the United States is, without question, the economic linchpin of that region; a very severe retrenchment or collapse of that economy would doubtless drive that area of the world into the throes of depression. >> ...and may I add would effect US equity market and US bond markets negatively...and severely hurt the semiconductor sector...

To: wooden ships who wrote (5675)	7/1/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL	Respond to of 42834

Truman, Thank you very much for the summary of Bob's Japan remarks. Can the news get any worse!? The following link is for the daily price of the Japanese WEB. I believe that the WEB trades on the AMEX, much like the S&P500 SPDRs. exchange2000.com Technically a move above 10 would be bullish. This WEB has been unsuccessfully trying to break and hold above 10 for three months. I suppose a Time or Newsweek cover story about the demise of Japan would be the actual bottom indicator! Maybe Japan would be a good replacement for the 5% emerging market segment. Just my thoughts. duke60

To: wooden ships who wrote (5675)	7/1/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 42834

Truman: I noticed today that NYT has article on the attack of speculators on the South African rand. Seeing as the Emerging Markets fund is made up of much more than SEA, I am wondering if there is more in the way of these types of events in other non SEA emerging markets that I do not know about. Anyone?

To: wooden ships who wrote (5675)	7/1/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I'd like to offer a late thanks for the nice summary of Bob's discussion on Japanese banks. Also, I found this post from another thread interesting: "Whereupon stocks not only ceased their precipitous fall, but cheerfully recovered. The lesson was plain: the public simply would not be shaken out of the market by anything short of a major disaster. But the speculative memory is short. As the people that summer looked back for precedents, they were comforted by the recollection that every crash of the past few years had ultimately brought prices to a new high point. Two steps up, one step down, two steps up again -- that was how the market went. If you sold, you had only to wait for the next crash (they came every few months) and buy in again. And there was really no reason to sell at all: you were bound to win in the end if your stock was sound. The really wise man, it appeared, was he who 'bought and held on.' Time and again the economists and forecasts had cried wolf, wolf, and the wolf had made only the most fleeting of visits. Time and again the Federal Reserve had expressed fear of inflation, and inflation had failed to bring hard times. Business in danger? Why, nonsense! Factories were funning at full blast and the statistical indices registered first-class industrial health. Was there a threat of overproduction? Nonsense again! Were not business concerns committed to hand-to-mouth buying, were not commodity prices holding to reasonable levels? Where were the overloaded shelves of goods, the heavy inventories, which business analysts universally accepted as storm signals? And look at the character of the stocks which were now leading the advance! At a moment when many of the high-flyers of earlier months were losing ground, the really solid and conservatively managed companies were precisely those which the most cautious investor would select with an eye to the long future. Their advance, it appeared, was simply a sign that they were beginning to have scarcity value. What the bull operators had long been saying must be true, after all. This was a new era. Prosperity was coming to a full and perfect flower. Still there remained doubters. Yet so cogent were the arguments against them that at last the great majority of even the sober financial leaders of the country were won over in some degree. They recognized that inflation might ultimately be a menace, but the fears of immediate and serious trouble, which had gripped them during the preceding winter were being dissipated. This bull market had survived some terrific shocks; perhaps it was destined for a long life, after all. On every side one heard the new wisdom sagely expressed. 'Prosperity due for a decline? Why, man, we've scarcely started!' 'Be a Bull on America. Never sell the United States short.' By the summer of 1929, prices had soared far above the stormy levels of the preceding winter into the blue and cloudless empyrean. All the old markers by which the price of a promising common stock could be measured had long since passed; if a stock once valued at 100 went to 300, what on earth was to prevent it from sailing on to 400? And why not ride with it for fifty or a hundred points, with Easy Street at the end of the journey?" Excerpted from "Only Yesterday," by Frederick Lewis Allen. Chapter XII: The Big Bull Market. Regarding September 3, 1929, the peak of the Bull Run of the 1920's. (Perennial Library; Harper & Row Publishers.) Copyrighted 1931.