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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Step1 who wrote (1216)	7/1/1998 6:08:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3902

Why is it that people want the Yen to be 120/USD? Can't we have it at 635 again? {or 200} Personnaly I don't think the banks will get cleaned up. Nor do I think the US will invade Japan to buy up very many banks. What I do see coming is an ever increasing US imports imbalance, against a deflationary world. I see the US FED imposing their desires on a people that don't want to play the same game. What this will lead to {In my opinion} is the devaluation of a third countries currency {China maybe}, and a shock to the world financial systems. And than round three of the trade wars begins. My personal opinion is that ever currency crisis since Mexico can be traced right back to the US FED., and their desire to steal the wealth from the world. {Not that there anything wrong with that} Nice little trick. Pump up M2, decrease bond yields, stimulate M3, and growth abounds. Inflows in capital {against a increasing import imbalance} and the USD soars. BUT the rate of change of M2 is the key to instability. Where does it stop? It weakens foreign currency, and thus foreign imports. Japan has the cash to do what it wants and when. It's inaction suggest that it wanted to devalue the YEN. Why the change now. To save face. And in a few week, they'll change their minds. {A Monetarist point of view} Timing! And why did US intervene... to stem export imbalances. Won't work, Americans just love to buy! PS: I'm still short term bullish on the Dow/TSE/ and am glad to see the Nikkei soar today... lovely. I really hope I'm wrong. More concerned with Europe & Russia. Agree people move countries.