To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11965 ) 7/2/1998 10:32:00 AM From: Caxton Rhodes Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
> "Irony" might best describe the initial reaction given the lengthy > bank stabilization steps announced by Japan. Meanwhile, U.S. labor > conditions depicted meaningful signs of Fed-desired softening which > appear mostly separate from the GM strike. > > In effect, Japan's "bridge bank" plan is similar to the American > version of the Resolution Trust Corporation. Y13 trillion of public > money on top of the Y30 trillion already known to be available to help > instill financial stability were pledged with the promise of more if > necessary. > > Theoretically, bond prices and the dollar should have fallen off > somewhat while the yen gained some strength in response to this > financial depth. In reality, the opposite occurred at first as other > concerns rose sending the dollar and bonds higher in renewed > flight-to-safety buying. Why? > > Four reasons help explain this seemingly ironic reaction: (1) many > more bank failures than expected are presumed to occur, (2) the bank > bailout time frame of up to 5 years is much longer than expected, (3) > the very worst banks are not allowed to fail as is done in the U.S. > (i.e. don't throw good money after bad), and (4) no plans exist to > liquidate the assets of the very worst performers. As such, these > problems may linger longer thereby giving the impression that Japan's > recovery may also not occur as fast as many would prefer. > > As time passes, the financial markets might find the intent of the > plan more credible as those U.S. officials that helped to design it > might express their support while Japan modifies or better justifies > the uncomfortable areas. > > Back home, the employment report revealed signs of softening labor > conditions in 3 areas while the other 3 main segments were near trend > or expectations. Of note: > > Non-farm payrolls +205,000 for June, near the +190,000 expected per > the Dow Jones Newswires. May was revised to +309,000 from +296,000 > with April moved to +320,000 from +302,000. > > Unemployment rose to 4.5%, up from the 4.4% estimate and the 4.3% > unrevised readings for April and May > > Average hourly earnings rose by just a penny to $12.74 per hour versus > estimates of 4-cents to 5-cents. As such, the year-over-year rate > came in at 4.08%, much lower than the 4.26% rate seen last month and > the 12 month peak of 4.35% experienced during April. > > Net-net, the market supporting news from the labor report is not > enough, in early morning trading, to offset the initial skepticism > regarding Japan's bank recovery plans. Lack of participation induced > by the upcoming 4th of July Holiday and the need to hear some > supportive earnings news is also weighing on the markets. > > > > Christopher Burdick