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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (8879)	7/2/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Actually, I'm an IBM "Big Iron" guy by training. I worked in IBM's mainframe divisions for many years. Thousands of lines of my code run on MVS and VM systems around the world every day today. I know what I'm talking about here. IBM for years has talked about "MIPS growth" when referring to their mainframe systems. That's because the absolute number of these systems has been steadily shrinking for years. That's the sort of decline I was referring to. As far as timetables go, the final decline for OS/390 won't come until after 2005, though I'm sure you'll be able to find MVS running in some government agencies well into the 2010s (you can still find 1970s-era Univac systems in some agencies). Nothing happens abruptly. You have to focus on relative strength. Right now MVS is in decline, UNIX is peaking, and NT is just starting its ascendency. The relevant point for MSFT investors is that NT's glory days are still ahead of it.