Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (12005)	7/3/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg - Wow. I kept thinking about Coca-Cola's share price (and accounting techniques) as I read your description of how so-called "portfolio managers" "manage" their (actually, as usual, other people's) stock portfolios. One point - did you mean October 1987 or 1997? Jon.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (12005)	7/3/1998 4:33:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg, I don't know what is with this thread. It may be Maurice's down under influence with a Maori spell or surfer Mike's water logged philosophy. Sooner or later, perfectly logical and sensible individuals will succumb to the true spirit of the thread - long off topic rants. Now it has even infected the best of the ON TOPIC posters, Gregg Powers. Though not directly related, what you said is obviously going to be of major impact to QCOM. I don't care how many contracts QC receives or how many CDMA subsribers there are. If the market goes down 20%, QCOM is not going to go anywhere. My personal experience of a bubble bursting was in real estate. Back in the eighties, down town San Diego was going through redevelopment. The first high rise added a couple of hundred thousand feet of space to the inventory. The project was a great success so now everyone jumped on the bandwagon. All of a sudden, a few million square feet are in various stages of development. Then the market reached the saturation point and prices quickly collapsed. The similarity is that many in the business clearly see it coming but there is nothing one can do. Just the fact that office space in Tokyo rents for $40/ft does not mean $4/ft in San Diego is cheap. By the most optmistic projections, the market cannot remotely absorb the planned inventory. So what happened? Prices kept going up while every developer rushes to get their project to market before the bubble bursts. The day of reckoning did come and every pig got slaughtered, together with many innocent bystanders. Are we in a similar situation with the stock market? I think we are rapidly approaching that possibility. That is exactly why I got myself one of those "video games" with a sell button. By the way, a suggestion to help to sleep better at night. Just do what Maurice does. Have a few sherries and start counting all the sheep in New Zealand. That is exactly how he remains so optimistic all the time. Ramsey

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (12005)	7/3/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg, hoping to cheer you up, you must accept being only a second-rate Portfolio Manager. But you are going to do a lot better than those you complained of in your post because at least half of them are going to lose their shirts whereas you will not. I wrote recently that speculators should be treated as heroes, not with the denigration they usually get as though they are some sort of leeches. Mahathir being one of the haters of Soros and co. That is because their business is about the most dangerous - reducing volatility and profiting from it. To understand where the herd is going and when is the name of the game in humanity. Standing in front of the herd is dangerous. But the herd is mindless. Understanding them is the way to profit. Because you invest on analysis and principles of long-established business practise, you won't do as well as those who successfully [by good judgement or good luck] speculate on what the herd will do. Unless you join that game, you shouldn't feel unhappy with simply doing very well, which you cannot avoid if you've properly understood the fundamentals of Qualcomm. A couple of years ago in puzzling over Qualcomm, I decided that because of volatility and volume with a rising profitability, Qualcomm has been targetted by skilled, computer, cash flow and algorithm wielding PhDs in mathematics who make money on the rises and falls. I believe they are so skilled they can predict and precipitate the momentum moves. Not just in Qualcomm of course, but hundreds of similar companies and whole markets. D E Shaw and company of New York is a name that I'm aware of. I'm like you. A basic joker and prefer the real to guessing the herd's wild moves. But I've developed a keen enough sense of Qualcomm's moves to have bought at each all time low, though the last one wasn't quite right but fairly close. But I'm aware that the real value in the modern video world of Web investing is to act as speculator. I've dabbled with the idea of algorithm wars, but have been too chicken so far. I've registered a company to do it, but have to open an account with a low cost trading broker in the USA. It would be a new idea for me. New Zealand went through a market crash that few are aware of in 1987. It was the same if not worse than Korea, Japan etc. The index is still way below the high of 1987. There was years of recession and psychological damage and fear stains New Zealand still. NZ thought it was King Kong in 1986! Same as Korea, Japan etc did before their comeuppance. The USA might be repeating the situation but it seems to me there are differences which make more than a major mincing of investment novices unlikely in the USA situation. There has been the S&L bust. Credit limits and loans are not maniacal. Many people are holding cash waiting for the suckers to crash. I don't think there is a need for an endlessly growing population and believe on the contrary that the world is going to see a population implosion over the next 50 years as women choose not to have babies in droves = same as in Japan. But there is a hugely growing economically functioning population - China, India, Indonesia [despite it's current woes] which will provide enormous human energy, creativity and opportunity. Qualcomm will be at the focal point of this spectacular human development because communication is a defining human characteristic. cdmaOne and cdma2000 will enable that communication at low, low, low cost. Why is this thread as it is? Because of the denizens. The unique combination of individuals who in a co-operative enterprise are building the world. Where individuals do that, success follows. Or something like that. Mqurice Second-rate investor Dow 16,000 Feb 2002 PS: Looking at the technical analysis, Q due to jump to $80 any day now! Look at the cycles - it's obvious.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (12005)	7/6/1998 9:04:00 AM
From: Jeff Vayda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg: I am confused. I would think you would like to see the market (read: the DOW) stall. This would require all those money managers to do some real home work. How can the Q fail when all those smart people are now required to find companies with products and technologies which will actually add to the well being of the world's population? During past tough times, money has found its way into the hedges of the day. People would wake up one morning and realize the thing they were chasing did not really improve their lives. Tulips; office space in Tokyo, whatever. They returned to the what they saw as the rock solid basics of everyday life, things no one could do with out. Gold had its day, consumer products had their day. Some Kiwi is ranting about a new paradigm, and I agree. When the money managers wake up one morning and see the DOW is not as satisfying as they would like, they will turn to the new rock solid basics. Q will be one of them. Communication is one of those things that people can not do with out. (Just look at the post traffic over a holiday!) Cheer Up! We are on the front end of a Brave New World. I wont go so far as to say everything will be rosy, but I think the Q will be a survivor and much more to the point, a winner in the coming world order. Jeff