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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21086)	7/4/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Justa, will study your post later. It is food for thought. Thank You! Gottfried

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21086)	7/4/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: jelrod3	Respond to of 70976

Very interesting post, "working stiff." Where did you get your data? Can you post the URL's for your data sources? Thanks.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21086)	7/4/1998 8:28:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Justa: thanks for the info: 1. is there a link to the Cowen study? 2. Did they say: The uptick in orders predicted upturns, but a downturn in orders did not precede downturns? That would correlate with my non-statistical look at the graphs. 3. Yes, orders may be a better number to follow than the BTB. The BTB, since it's a ratio, may look better simply because billings are declining at a faster rate than bookings. Obviously, that wouldn't signal industry improvement. 4. Did they look at back-end orders vs. stock price? It looked to me like that graph had less short-term variability (=noise) than the front-end order graph. It would be curious if front-end orders were a better predictor of AMAT's price than back-end orders. 5. Did the study take into account the lag time for when booking data became available? If a May bookings trough coincided with a May stock price trough, this would not be a leading or coincident indicator, since May bookings data isn't available till June. TIA for the good info.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21086)	7/5/1998 3:45:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Justa, I charted your order data vs btb and AMAT end-of-month price. geocities.com orders data... exchange2000.com Spread sheet data below. I'm sure someone will bring any errors to my attention. Gottfried 1998/99 orders actual orders EOM EOM$/NOV btb /NOV price APR 1.10 27.44 0.83 MAY 1.09 32.62 0.99 JUN 1.07 35.4 1.07 JUL 1.12 45.94 1.39 AUG 1400.5 1.07 0.88 47.19 1.43 SEP 1468.5 1.05 0.92 47.62 1.44 OCT 1518 1.02 0.95 33.38 1.01 NOV 1595.1 1.00 1.00 33 1.00 DEC 1589.0 0.99 1.00 30.13 0.91 JAN 1515.7 0.94 0.95 32.81 0.99 FEB 1382.5 0.9 0.87 36.81 1.12 MAR 1240.1 0.82 0.78 35.31 1.07 APR 1136.9 0.77 0.71 36.13 1.09 MAY 1089.9 0.8 0.68 32 0.97