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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: betty moyers who wrote (10447)	7/4/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: DaiS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Betty, Thanks for your interest in my most 10222. Probably you are right, I was too pessimistic in my estimates. What I was trying to check was whether the people on this thread, when getting excited about overseas sales really appreciate how big and wealthy the USA is. How can one become excited about sales in Sweden which has a population 1/35 that of USA? So I was first interested in the EC and then added in a few more countries. You are right, I missed a few important ones. However, I think I was correct to consider the per capita GDP as well as population size since many populous countries will be too poor to contribute much to muse sales. China and Russia have growing groups of wealthy people, despite their economic problems. I do not know if the same is true of India. I was very struck by an argument of Vlad. This was: 8 lines at new plant, 96 million units per year. $4 profit per unit just for overseas sales gives an EPS of $12 realizable in a couple of years. With a multiple of 30 gives share price of $360 !!! Hang on I said, where is reality? I cannot be so lucky with my investment. So the most obvious flaw in the argument was that the world is not big enough to use up these 96 million units per annum. Even if I was too pessimistic, I am still totally and absolutely baffled as to why Vivus needs a new plant in Ireland. There is something missing somewhere and I cannot see what it is? DaiS