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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (5283)	7/5/1998 9:43:00 PM
From: WTDEC	Respond to of 9719

Peter, as usual I found your 2 cent coins were solid gold. Appreciate your efforts on the various threads. I remain frustrated by a general lack of time to research/post. Regards, Walter

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (5283)	7/14/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Peter, even more useful exercise would be 10x in 3 years Peter S, could you outline such a case for SEPR? I don't actually think SEPR could produce x10 in 3 years - it is just starting from too high a base, as you would need a market cap > $10 billion. It's much easier to see x10 in 5 years, as by then it could look like a mini big-pharma, with serious revenue coming from all the antihistamines, and in particular norastemizole, which is 50-50 with J&J and could easily be a billion dollar drug. Within 5 years they could easily have 1/3 of the albuterol market, which is another $500 million in revenue to them. Add to these a deal with Lilly for Prozac II, and a deal with J&J for Propulsid II, and it's not hard to see profits in the $300m after tax or more range, with a steep enough growth to support a PE in the 30's. Of the stocks I own, clearly MOGN could produce x10 in 3 years if MGI-114 turns out to be another Taxol, but this is a pretty low probability event. Similarly NTII could produce this return if Memantine turns out to be a winner, mainly because it is starting from such a low base. Of course NTII is probably equally likely to be a x0.1 candidate <G>. My best candidate for a x10 in 3 years is PCYC. It's starting from a fairly low base after its recent decline (current market cap of around $200m, plenty of cash) and hasn't given away any US rights to its drugs. If GD-Tex works as well as I think it does and continues to show low toxicity, it could end up being used on most if not all radiation treatments (700,000 a year), which at a $2k or higher price per treatment is real money. Their artery roto-rooter application has similar home-run potential, but is earlier in their pipeline. Peter

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (5283)	7/15/1998 3:27:00 PM
From: Andreas Helke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

My short list for potential 10X in 3 years price appreciation: ANIK CHAI ENMD GENZL LGND. Anika has already demonstrated that it has the potential for that kind of price increase by rising from $1.5 in 1995 to $19 yesterday. techstocks.com I don't really think that it will repeat that performance by rising to $190 in the next 3 years. But it still has a reasonable market cap of $180 million and a lot of room to grow. Its most important product Orthovisc for the treatment of osteoarthritis of the knee has a large potential market. Orhtovisc is a approved and marketed product in some countries. It is approved but not yet marketed in the European community. In the USA the NDA has been submitted in december. I did not know that company in 1995 and therefore do not know why it got as cheap as it was back then. The major asset of Life Medical Sciences CHAI is its low market cap of $11 million. CHAI does not need to become a big company to achieve a 10x return. After abandoning several product candidates it got pretty cheap. Now they have a chirurgical anti adhesion product in clinical trials that worked better than Genzymes Seprafilm in preclinical research. A major drawback is lack of sufficient cash. Combined with the low market cap that could lead to highly dilutive financing. Interested investors might want to wait until the next round of financing has been completed. This is of course a highly speculative and risky investment. EntreMed has shown promise by rising 7x over night. It has now given back most of this somewhat exaggerated gain. Now we have a biotech company that has a somewhat too high market cap for a early stage biotech company. But since endostatin is the most promising preclinical cancer drug candidate so far the current price is IMHO justified. EntreMed has a good chance to turn into a successful company. Thalidomide is in phase II trial for cancer and shows much promise. And the still preclinical cell permeation technology has much promise for improving blood transfusions and treating some hart diseases. Endostatin is the wild card that will lead to wild price swings of the shares and potentially to a major success. Genzyme tissue repair GENZL got just too cheap. Based on year 2000 earnings of $1 I have a one year price target of $20. If we take the highest earnings estimate we get a target price of $30. Include a higher PE and 2 more years of time and GENZL should not have any problems to rise to the $60 that are required to make the 10x in 3 years target. I don't think that Ligand is a 10x candidate right now. Its impressive pipeline needs a little too long to create equally impressive earnings. But if Ligand keeps in its current $10 - $20 trading range for the next 2 years it probably has to catch up with its earnings by going up 10x in the following 3 years. Andreas