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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Max Mach who wrote (8923)	7/5/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Sean T. Kim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

It will take 2 straight days of double digit declines before the great AMZN flameout begins. When that happens, and I think it will be soon, then jump in with both feet. The longs who have been riding this thing will turn tail since they know they are way ahead of themselves. Management has been downplaying expectations for weeks and analysts have continued to lower their forecasts. They went to the junk market a few weeks ago instead of doing a secondary offering because they knew institutional investors thought they were overvalued and would never subscribe (and that was 80 points ago). They have gone from one money losing business into another (music) which has even worse margins in hopes of diversifying their lines of business. They are just starting to feel the heat from Barnes and Borders and it is only going to get worse. They are biting off more than they can chew in the short-term and the class-action lawsuits are just out there waiting to be filed when this thing tumbles. The only reason for the rise has been pure momentum by retail investors trading in small blocks. Anyone trying to rationalize this rise on some fundamental basis is talking out of their behind. There is no way this company is worth $6 billion on the hope they turn a profit in 2 years (a date that keeps getting pushed back further and further). This is not an Internet stock -- it's a bookseller with a website. If the insiders could unload now they would but they are currently locked out from trading. Unfortunately, the price will probably drop below where it was before the mania started and the sudden reversal may bring down a lot of other stocks that have nothing to do with this.

To: Max Mach who wrote (8923)	7/6/1998 2:34:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 164684

Max, re Perhaps revenues not growing at the anticipated torrid rate, or operating expenses (they're employing 800+ people now) blossoming faster than expected by the analytical wunderkind who view AMZN's business model as the newest new paradigm.... I think revenue is the key, with operating expenses a close second...but revenue growth clearly must stay on a torrid path. I thought it was interesting that one analyst recently said in an article posted on this thread that "Amazon has completely captured the online market segment". The question that was not asked was "okay, so from where does the future torrid growth come from?" I wouldn't be surprised if sequential sales growth does grow, but we're still talking books here. Oh yes and the sideline of CDs. Ask K-Tel how fast that business is growing. And how is Amazon going to reach non-internet consumers? Answer: they aren't. As a "pure play", they have bet big on the internet. What I'm wondering also: Let's just say for sake of arguement that web-TV over cable is going to be very, very popular. Fine, but what's the difference between ordering music and books off of the internet via web-TV, vs. calling an 800 number scrolling across the regular TV screen. I think Amazon's sales are going to flatten out far quicker than virtually all the wall street analysts believe. Lots and lots of companies have grown very quickly, but how many have been able to maintain that torrid growth, once the initial "great idea" has been exploited for maximum quick gains? Like Marion pointed out, as long as Amazon and other internet companies need WS firms for investment banking business, these WS firms aren't going to say anything less than positive things about these internet companies' business prospects. In this way the big WS firms have a large conflict of interest when they issue stock "ratings". It's up to the individual investor to do their own DD on these companies, because WS is clearly only out for their own interest, which is investment banking.