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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (21127)	7/5/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: fred woodall	Respond to of 70976

Lehman has AMAT on top 10 buy list (12 month target) Their track record (last 5 years) averages 38% return. Might they be suggesting a bottom in the sector? WSJ post Chip maker enter Global Slump. May sales fell 13%. INTC/KLAC/TXN earnings will provide the momentum either way.

To: jtechkid who wrote (21127)	7/6/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Kid, The next several weeks are pivotal for the semi-mfg's. Earnings season will make or break them as a short/mid term investment,IMHO. Remember AMAT is making employees take mandatory time off and has offered early retirement plans for many senior personnel. This is a cost cutting measure that implies that business conditions are poor and that the outlook isn't rosy for the short/mid term. Why would large cap investors be interested in downtrodden stocks that don't anticipate any quick turn-around when there are better places to invest with more short term upside potential?? I suspect that Intel earnings is key and even they are implementing forced shutdowns for certain fabs, that can't be a good indicator of anticipated growth/expansion for the industry. I have read and studied too many negative articles and information on the sector and the world economies to believe that a turn-around will happen anytime soon. Asia is effectively "dead" as far as new fab expansion and capital expansion cutbacks are being announced daily. I don't think we will see $12 either, but we could visit the low $20's or high teens by Oct, IMO. I forsee another fall correction developing and will be sure of it if we see a correction in July and a rally in mid-Aug. Time will tell. Waiting patiently, BB