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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Konehead who wrote (2240)	7/6/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

Konehead, I think the street is taking it's hypergrowth expectations WAY too far. You can see hypergrowth in certain sectors like sfa and supply chain which are (were) essentially green fields to exploit. We've also seen hypergowth in erp/backoffice, but I think that much of the recent high growth has been an artificial push by y2k related problems bringing business forward. hypergrowth is also possible in enabler segments like rdbms' were for client server or network infrastructure has been for the internet. Most typical enterprise application cycles that are upgrading existing infrastructure like customer support and service have had their ups and downs and tend to sustain 35% to 50% growth. I suspect part of the issue with the cis sector is that these companies came public early and had high growth and too high expectations associated with their valuations. Now vntv will be dead for some time and valued as if it's a 15% grower at best. (No one pays for services growth) We've got time to study to see if there's life here or not. But this thing will likely underperform for up to a year unless the company gives up and sells out. Key question? What about staff retention, it's hard to keep working when your house deposit has become a car deposit. why not go elsewhere? nice timing on the insider sales by luongo, loo and jodoin. TD

To: Konehead who wrote (2240)	7/6/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: Rick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

As far as I am concerned, the only way you can justify buying Vantive is as a takeover play. This is not an unreasonable expectation. I just listened to the conference call and didn't hear anything that gives me confidence that the shortfall is a one time "execution" issue. In this case, blaming it on "execution" is a statement of the obvious fact that expecations have not been met. The only positive I took from the call is that Luongo and Loo came accross as forthright, earnest, and sincere (first call I have listened in on) - nice, but not a reason to buy the stock. The one thing that makes no sense to me is that they acknowledge a shortfall of 10 or so deals, but projected that they would close all of them. Given this you would not expect that 3rd and 4th quarter expectations would come down to 20% yr-to-yr. Basically, all we can conclude is that sales growth is slowing (execution schmexecution !). Anyway, with that said, if it goes down a couple points tomorrow I will buy on takeover spec. Any comments on takeover possibilities. It would seem that at some price level this would look pretty enticing to Oracle or PeopleSoft. Rick.