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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocketman who wrote (5289)	7/7/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Russian Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Folks, Has anyone else noticed that the recent rout in AGPH coincided almost exactly with the model call purchase? Now, I realize that this does not prove a causal relationship, but it certainly looks suspicious. The worst part is that I am too heavily margined at the moment to take advantage of this situation. Naturally, by the time I am in a better position to pull the trigger, the opportunity to buy at these levels will be gone (it's exactly what happened with SEPR, recently.) So, two humble requests: 1. Please, do not buy any LGND or MOGN calls. It would bankrupt me. 2. When I get on a firmer margin footing, could we try this thing with the AGPH calls again, please? Also, SEPR. I would love to get another chance to buy SEPR in the high 30's (sorry, Peter.) Thanks, RB ;-)

To: Rocketman who wrote (5289)	7/16/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: John Zwiener	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Rocket, Your questions about Igen are really good. They make me realize that the perception of value is based on one's interpretation of Igen's technology versus others, Igen's management, and financial situation. One might think of origen technology being a magnitude or two more sensitive, more specific (fewer costly false positives), cost effective, very rapid development of new tests as needed, small molecule in reactive stage for more accurate binding, almost no background noise with prolonged measurement capacity, if needed, for small numbers of molecule, very rapid reading of reactions for reversible or intermediate stages of reactions which are extremely difficult to measure cost effectively, wider dynamic range (20 times bigger for HCG for example), etc. If one is a follow the money person, Boehringer Mannheim and other companies appear to have spent over 1/2 billion bringing early models of instruments to market based on Igen's tech. The lawsuit is over how much royalty Igen should get from Roche/BMG and their placement of instruments in areas outside their license, and reserved to Igen. If there is an injunction against Roche, it will tend to confirm that Igen has an obvious case against Roche for contract violations with instrument placements. Another lawsuit has to do with another Swiss company (what a coincidence!) claiming Igen is using some of their technology in the origen process. From what I can tell, it's not even close. Maybe a diversionary suit. I understand why it's hard to see what Igen when comparing to other companies, revenues and other standard comparisons, but some of the revenue is hidden by alledged withholding by Roche ( I think over 80%) of royalties (and royalties are a purer form of revenue) and dropping of producing tests for Organon Technica which was produced at cost anyway so no positive cash flow produced ( OT picked up the production). Much revenue is pending depending on good followthru by Igen. So Igen has to be valued based on understanding of the measuring technologies out there and the industry in which it is used. Very difficult to do objectively, and a lot of background knowledge is helpful. So your implication that Igen is risky is correct (I know you did not say that exactly, but you are right). Nevertheless, your comments made me reconsider the reasons I like Igen, and those reasons for me are still there. It is worth looking at.