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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Early Out who wrote (2274)	7/7/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: Rick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3033

Couple of Thoughts: 1) I bought at 13 1/8 this morning 2) I agree that Vantive is not necessarily cheap on fundamentals and the morning bounce off of 13 or so may be a dead cat bounce, but I am thinking back to the Rational Software debacle last year when the stock tanked to 10 from the 20's on missed quarter. An acquaintance of mine suggested it as a buy. Based on all the bad press and general sentiment that it was dead money, I didn't act on the idea. Well, 6 months later the "dead money/cat" was up to 15 for a 50% gain. Basically, when it scares the hell out of you to buy the stock, it's probably a good time to buy. 3) Don't discount the acquisition potential. It seems to me that the strategic value in the cis space places a floor on the price, even if the next quarter is bad. It seems to me if Vantive goes below 10 or so, takeover interest would be high. In fact, I would think that right now Vantive could sell out for a 50% premium. Consolidation into a full ERP vendor seems a natural next step to me. Dead money does not bother me; If it's just dead money then it can be a justified buy on upside potential vs. downside risk. If it's still in the process of dying, that's another story. I am somewhat heartened by the bounce back to 14 (hopefully still there when I finish this). cheers. Rick.