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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (33995)	7/7/1998 1:04:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572373

Paul, NSM has led the way, then AMD and Intel is bringing up the rear...going down the toilet. AMD may be bottoming, NSM has 6 more months to bottom and Intel is barely treading water. This is a LOSER area of the market right now... Find another sector. Jim

To: Paul Engel who wrote (33995)	7/7/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Burt Masnick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572373

Paul, As I remember, AMD was around 27 or so as the last quarter's results came in. I recall Albert being so excited that he bought a "strangle" which seems to be some combination of puts and calls. Well, he made good money on the puts. The story then was "wait till next quarter". Next quarter's here. Here are my wags as to AMD's results which should be announced in a few hours. My guess is that AMD sold about 1.7 to 1.8+ million microprocessors of various flavors. I base this on a distinct lack of crowing from AMD when they could have hinted that everything was ducky. My guess is that the lost about .25 a share. I could certainly be wrong about these. But I am confident that "wait till next quarter" will be sung again. Willing to eat crow if these predictions are wrong. These are just IMHO. IF I am correct, then there is something funny about manufacturing at AMD because all their previous problems were purportedly the .35 process which should be phased down to near zero by now. So why isn't the .25 process humming. Probably because the pilot facility and the production facility ain't precise replicas of each other. Or there was some aggressive parameter pushing to get to marketable speeds. Or, worst of all, products were released before they were really volume ready, in the hope that playing catchup would work. But this is all really idle supposition since many who post on this thread are lock-sure that there ain't no production problems and besides IBM will ride to the rescue soon. IBM may ride to the rescue, but at what cost to AMD. IMHO, if perchance there is an upside surprise on chip volume AND earnings for the prior quarter, AMD could pop in price by maybe 40-50% in a week. I think that AMD has promised good things so often that they really have to deliver the goods to be believed. But if they actually do deliver, there are lots of folks who'll belly up to the bar to get a piece. The price is really beaten down. The conference call should have everyone's attention. Best regards and good investing, Burt