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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (5088)	7/7/1998 5:51:00 PM
From: Goldbug Guru	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Oh man, is so depressing looking at the dow jones ^up +60 points in the afternoon and then finished off the day with a negative 6.73 points. To put it into perspective, the dow actually lost more than 66 points for the day. The dow has already reached the pinnacle stage, which simply means any further upward movement will drastically speed up the process of a major crash. We should all look at a stock as a piece of paper that has no intrinsic value. It doesn't matter if a company generates billions of dollars in revenues or offer the investors a 8% dividend. All these goodies are meaningless when all the blue chips loses 30 to 80 % of its value. We have to stay focus & nimble, so we don't get caught in the biggest stock market crash of all time. Asia, Russia, and the rest of the Emerging markets are on life support, gasping for air from their respirator. US itself can no longer hold its own, so don't expect any new lease on life for the weaken emerging markets, especially asia. It's possible that the dow can drift to 6000 points.

To: Lee who wrote (5088)	7/7/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Lee, <<How is a country like Malaysia affected by the recent downturn? I would expect you currently are facing rising inflation and unemployment. I would doubt there are many benefits for the unemployed. Does the average Malaysian in KL have a life long history of employment?>> Part of the problem here is that we do not get objective reporting. The local papers pretty much are sound off boards for the administration and they are still in the denial stage in a big way. Everyday the papers bring new official exhortations to save, cut consumption, repatriate money, grow vegetables, etc etc ad nauseum. But there are signs of diminishing employment and much speculation that it will only worsen. Prices have risen a bit but rice and other staples are still controlled or subsidized by the government. Luxury items have fallen in price. Imported brand names have risen dramatically. You are quite right about benefits for the unemployed. They virtually do not exist. The last recession was in 1984 - 1985 and is very much on the minds of most folks here. The consensus is that this one will be worse. <<Stitch, when you are out and about in KL and you look in the eyes of a stranger what do you see? How are people effected?>> Well, I do not have the qualities of a seer but from comments and discussions I see and hear fear and apprehension. Nearly everyone has pulled in their horns and, even though I am on a U.S.D. denominated economy which has strengthened with the devaluation of the ringiit I have largely pulled in mine as well in preference for increasing the war chest. The one exception has been to attend a recent auction of oriental rugs and acquire some beautiful pieces for roughly 1/5th of what they would sell for in the States. These I rationalized would only appreciate in value but we did not really buy them on that basis but bought them for our own personal pleasure. Those and an investment in a new laptop will be my largest purchases this year. On a more minor scale I may try to increase my small collection of jade and celadon pettery but only if a real opportunity presents itself. As things are going it may very well do so. <<On one particular day we came across two bear cubs on the side of the river>> Cubs are scary. A very defensive mother is always close by. My scariest run in with Alaska wildlife was with a cantankerous moose. I assure you he was every bit as fearsome as a grizzly. He chased two of us for 1o0 yards through marshy scrub and with no breath left in me and no tree to climb I finally turned and drew a .44 that has always been with me in that country. I had decided that the run in with the Fish and Game folks was preferrable to being trampled by the moose. I do not know why he stopped at that moment. Maybe he sensed my desperation. Does fear give off a warning odor when flight turns to fight? Maybe it was my newly wettened pants? On another occasion we were driven from the banks by an explorative grizzly but we showed each other enough mutual respect to keep a distance and he became occupied with three freshly caught cohos we left gratuitously on the bank just for him. We double backed to our skiff and yielded that bank to him, who had the priority claim in any case. I wonder still if he ever found the fanny pack that contained my cache of "Reeses pieces". Easy salmon and peanut butter cups should have delighted even the most discriminating bear. Best, Stitch