Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nemer who wrote (1349)	7/8/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

From what I'm told, "Walk-Forward" testing is essentially a hoax. It does not sound as if that's what you are doing, I was just looking for another opinion. As I understand it, re-optimizing is akin to curve-fitting. An example I read was --- to take a simple indicator like a MA --- one may decide to "buy" when price goes above a MA and sell when it declines below it. So the trick is to find the "proper" MA. Hypothetically, one might find that the "optimal" MA in 1997 was 10 daily bars. So the system is programmed to look for this crossover during 1998. Now when 1999 dawns, re-optimizing may discover that the best MA in 1998 was 18 bars. So the system is re-genned with 18 instead of 10. This is one thing I suppose I shall have to watch out for while I'm trying to conceptualize a system, I guess. It's easy to visualize when one looks at MAs but the more dicey indicators like PREM, TIKI and so forth may slip by me. Just thinking out loud.