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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roy F who wrote (21205)	7/8/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

About a 2 weeks ago, the jtech kid suggested that the "street" was getting sick of the net stocks and that WHEN they turned down, the money would flow into the semiconductor area. Truly an excellent call. And this huge demand for large cap stocks continues to befuddle those of us waiting for dirt cheap prices. There appears to be no doubt it will take a general market drop to get us anywhere near a cheap entry level.

To: Roy F who wrote (21205)	7/8/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

The beauty of this "net" drop is that it is selective right now, so the sense of nausea and disgust that I have had watching folks make a fortune on amzn and yhoooo, has gone away, and not been replaced with the psychotic episodes that I would be having if the net stocks would have dragged down other sectors as well. But this horror could last for awhile if yahooooos report is a huge upside surprise. I'm bracing myself.

To: Roy F who wrote (21205)	7/8/1998 5:06:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: cut the 1999 earnings estimate to $0.97 a share Lots of estimates cuts in the last 6 weeks. I think this is the second brokerage that has recently cut 99 est. to about 1$, which is below 98 est. There is a pattern to the estimate changes since about mid-May: the 98 est gets cut a little, and the 99 gets cut a lot. Since management has been saying "we have no visibility on 99", I wonder how those estimates are arrived at. I guess they're required to say something. Lehman thinks AMAT will make 7$ EPS at the next cycle peak. At the outside, a cycle can last about 4 years. 1$ to 7$ EPS in 4 years would be quite a ride! But if EPS is down 98 to 99, then orders won't bottom out till end of 98 at the earliest. A forward PE of 30, with an E declining several years in a row, is unsustainable. So far, earnings season has given no reason for hope. But my INTC is up nicely!