Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (25329)	7/8/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I wish I could be as confident as you that we are at or near the bottom. I have a hard time remembering that these companies are making money, and good money. But that does not matter, at least not now. Fund managers are in a competitive business. They are not willing to come to this sector and risk their overall returns to do battle with the shorts, who have taken control. I don't think the picture will change until the shorts have taken all these companies (perhaps with the exception of SLB, since it probably has to be bought with the indexes) to obscenely low levels. It seems like the big boys have a tacit understanding for now that longs can have the rest of the market while the shorts suck everything out of the oil service companies. Remember that these companies may have been cut by 30%, or in some cases maybe 50%. But look at how much they were cut last winter. Or look at how much the diskdrives were cut, or some of the networkers last year. I am not saying these companies will drop much more, but it is a real possibility. I hope you prove to be right. Hey, EVI did nicely today.

To: SJS who wrote (25329)	7/8/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Steve, Marc, thread; I think the operative word is dead money. Doesn't mean that the stocks won't have some movement here and there but you might be better off selling the losers, have Uncle Sam eat part of the loss and buy into a similar company. We've talked about this practice before. When this sector moves, they are going to all move in a similar fashion. I'm thinking of swapping out of NE and into RIG or CDG but haven't made up my mind. Consult someone with a better grasp of the tax laws before trying this in your particular situation. Basically your outlook on the group should depend quite a bit on your timeframe. Short term who knows where this will eventually lead. Most markets will swing to extremes on both the upside and the downside as you know. Unlike my friend DiamondH, I'm willing to hold these puppies for years until the "value" becomes apparent. This little "blip" up then down since March is going to eventually seem like a minor bump on some of the charts 2 years from now. Take your time, invest in this section slowly and buy quality. The best thing that isn't in these stocks right now is La Nina and the fact that so far winter has always followed summer. For disclosure sake I own varying amounts of MDCO, NE, TMAR and FGII and haven't bought or sold a thing in this sector since mid May.

To: SJS who wrote (25329)	7/12/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I bought back in partially on Friday - VRC, DO, ESV, RDC, etc. I sold my CDG puts; still have GLM July 17.5 puts. I bought July CDG 30 calls. If these stocks drop further on mon/tue, I will buy more calls, probably on GLM, ESV and VRC. I expect these stocks to gain strength going into options expiration this friday. (Lots of stock to buy back as the put holders cash in). (After Friday, who knows?!?!?!) If we do get a bit of a pop, I will reload on puts and perhaps sell calls against my stock and long calls. For example, with 1000 shares of GLM at 17.5, I would buy 10 August 22.5 calls. If the stock rises to 19-20 by friday, I would buy 10 (maybe more if they are pretty cheap) Aug 17.5 puts and sell 10 Aug. 20 calls. I should win (or at least not get smacked around too badly!!) if stock goes up or down. In order to leg into this hedged position, a small amount of capital is risked, the cost of the Aug 22.5 calls. These must be purchased when the stock is pretty crippled. Are we there yet? <G> Mike