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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rillinois who wrote (5764)	7/8/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Rillinois: Brinker does not make market forecasts two to five years in advance. What difference would a Brinker market projection make to you anyway? Did you forget about this post: Subject: Re: Brinker Date: Mon, Dec 8, 1997 17:25 EST From: Rillinois Message-id: <19971208222501.RAA11298@ladder02.news.aol.com> JOE, Like I said before Brinker did say he believed the market would make a new high before the end of the winter season, but if he was so confident about that, then why didn't he have a buy signal out on the market when the market turned down in October? Why is he such a great "market timer" when he missed a great opportunity to buy after the most recent drop, I think it was on of the largest corrections we have had in a long time. It seems like everybody was buying except for Brinker. On a side note, did anybody hear Brinker bash the Motley Fools over the weekend? BTW, Brinker holds himself out as being able to identify a bear market and an intermediate correction before it happens. An intermediate correction used to be defined by Brinker as a drop in the market between 10% and 20%. The DOW dropped approx. 12%-13% and the S&P dropped 10.8%. The latest spin from Brinker is that we should ignore the DOW because it is not a diversified index (even though he makes his targets and "gift horse buying opportunities" based on the DOW) and he now defines an intermediate correction as a drop in the S&P between 11% and 20%. It's simply unbeleivable how he gets away with this. I'll remind everybody that I do think Brinker is a great source for information on the stock market in general. But when it comes to market timing, he is a spin doctor. Brinker is a bull. Always has been always will be. If he is going to be a bull and invest an index funds that's fine and dandy. That's probably the best way to go in the end. But why does he hold himself out as being the only one who can time the market successfully consistently? He's says corrections can come at any time during a bull market. Again this is most likely true. After corrections take place, however, he's on the air trying to make you believe he called the correction, "B.S.," he does not predict when they are going to happen. He also said this weekend that only his listeners were prepared for the significant rise in the market this year. Again, "B.S." Brinker was not saying the market could get to 8200 last year at this time. If anything he was just like everybodyelse. He was looking for historically average returns and after his first target was hit, he then raised his target later in the year. In sum, yes he's been right staying invested in the market. But he has no intention of ever going bearish. So I don't think he should hold himself out as being a market timer. Rillinois --------------------------------- PS: I am waiting on the edge of my seat re that MSFT and VOD analysis. Did you get the information you need on the exact dates of purchase? I am sure your fans came through for you. But maybe you need to know the exact time of day when Brinker thought of the recommendations as well? Just what is taking you so long? Gee, maybe it is time for Eura to show up now. LOL.

To: Rillinois who wrote (5764)	7/8/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 42834

Rillinois: Oh my ! Your Past is catching up with you. You wrote this ? (QUOTE) Subject: Re: Brinker Date: Mon, Dec 8, 1997 17:25 EST From: Rillinois Message-id: <19971208222501.RAA11298@ladder02.news.aol.com> JOE, Like I said before Brinker did say he believed the market would make a new high before the end of the winter season, but if he was so confident about that, then why didn't he have a buy signal out on the market when the market turned down in October? Why is he such a great "market timer" when he missed a great opportunity to buy after the most recent drop, I think it was on of the largest corrections we have had in a long time. It seems like everybody was buying except for Brinker. On a side note, did anybody hear Brinker bash the Motley Fools over the weekend? BTW, Brinker holds himself out as being able to identify a bear market and an intermediate correction before it happens. An intermediate correction used to be defined by Brinker as a drop in the market between 10% and 20%. The DOW dropped approx. 12%-13% and the S&P dropped 10.8%. The latest spin from Brinker is that we should ignore the DOW because it is not a diversified index (even though he makes his targets and "gift horse buying opportunities" based on the DOW) and he now defines an intermediate correction as a drop in the S&P between 11% and 20%. It's simply unbeleivable how he gets away with this. I'll remind everybody that I do think Brinker is a great source for information on the stock market in general. But when it comes to market timing, he is a spin doctor. Brinker is a bull. Always has been always will be. If he is going to be a bull and invest an index funds that's fine and dandy. That's probably the best way to go in the end. But why does he hold himself out as being the only one who can time the market successfully consistently? He's says corrections can come at any time during a bull market. Again this is most likely true. After corrections take place, however, he's on the air trying to make you believe he called the correction, "B.S.," he does not predict when they are going to happen. He also said this weekend that only his listeners were prepared for the significant rise in the market this year. Again, "B.S." Brinker was not saying the market could get to 8200 last year at this time. If anything he was just like everybodyelse. He was looking for historically average returns and after his first target was hit, he then raised his target later in the year. In sum, yes he's been right staying invested in the market. But he has no intention of ever going bearish. So I don't think he should hold himself out as being a market timer. Rillinois" (UNQUOTE) --------------------------------- Oh My ! You ARE a real pistol, aren't you ! Oh well. At least you can calculate Percentages and 4-Week Moving Averages :-) P

To: Rillinois who wrote (5764)	7/8/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

The following responses are only my guesses and opinions. Re: "How would Bob define a prolonged "sideways" market? Does Bob's proprietary timing model try to forecast such a market? .... For clarification, I'm thinking of a market that nets returns near 0% for approx. 2-5 years or more." I believe that Bob's model "looks into the future" only about six months or so. A projection of happenings two to five years in the future would in my opinion be rank speculation; too much can change in the interim. Re: "If shorting the market or investing in a money market account is the proper action to be taken in a bear market, what would be the proper action to take in a hypothetical "sideways" market?" For a taxable account, it would certainly be better to hold, rather than take gains, reduce your assets by paying 20% or more of your gains when you pay taxes, and then re-enter the market at about the same level. Also, I believe (and I think that Bob would agree) that short-term fluctuations of up to 4% can and do happen at any time, even in "sideways" markets. These fluctuations would make it hard to get out and back into the market without taking a loss. Best wishes, I2