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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (21233)	7/8/1998 6:51:00 PM
From: jbershad	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brown downgrade of amat. Lowered earning. Check Yahoo. Jerry

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (21233)	7/8/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Vartan	Respond to of 70976

Trying to find a balance here... On the negative side - Asia, oversupply, usually slow summer season. On the positive side - Steady stream of service contracts, industry leader position, the fact that street seems to like the stock, Europe. As a result - slightly higher valuations (especially considering today's record highs). As much as I'd like to be with jtechkid - and I hold AMAT long - I have to admit that Teri's views are much closer to me now. Have to be realistic - it's not the bottom yet. Having said that, it seems unlikely to me that it will go to 20-22 area barred sudden market meltdown. Still around 200 million shares are being held by institutions. If they didn't dump at 26 what makes you think they are going to do it at 22? IMO, the most boring scenario is likely - stock loitering in 25-30 range, depending on general market, until we see BB improving - <sigh!>- I'm afraid, "well into 1999". p.s. Thanks everybody for insightful and informational posts - I've learned a great deal from you all, and since I'm very new to investing, it's so much more valuable. Also thanks SI for the trial period, have been reading quite a bit, but hated the idea of buying the membership without the opportunity to sell it couple of points higher next month <g>.

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (21233)	7/8/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

teri..... I just got back from the Dominican Republic... scrolled through a few posts.... my general opinion is that nothing much has changed.... The idea that money rotating out of internet stocks will sustain a semi rally is absurd.... there just aren't enough internet shares to go around... Jacob said it best... AMAT is now trading at 30x 1999's expected earnings.... and u know I think that AMAT will make a loss in the 4th Q of this year.... unless they disguise the loss as a write-off of plant and equip from their $500m expansion. FYI I bought a little JPM this morning......

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (21233)	7/9/1998 9:19:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

teri.... herb greenberg was on CNBC this morning predicting AMAT will preannounce next week at semicom-west, laughing at amats strength and lack of fortitude and frankness given the fact that Taiwain (30% of amats business) has put all orders on hold.... My view is as it was... Amat will preannounce this Q and make a loss next or use writeoffs to cover the same..... herb also mention 12 as being a number that was realistic for the stock from his discussions with other experts, given the realities facing the stock.... my view is as it has been or a couple of months.... 24 and below is where to re-enter the stock, with the bulk of bucks being held in reserve below 20. by the way I take herb with a pinch of salt, I bring him up because of the information with regards to taiwain------ Just one man's opinin on sport.