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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick who wrote (21248)	7/9/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: Drake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Rick, I concur. AMAT's 5 year average PE is 21.4 -- times Alex Brown's 1999 estimate of .97 = $20.76/share. How do you justify a price of $30?

To: Rick who wrote (21248)	7/9/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Rick, Re:but it's just a pipe dream to think it's going to be a good performer in the next year. and so this is dead money at best How can you say this so confidently? There is little visibility looking out- this tranlates into things could worsen or improve much over the coming year. Why, in the past week, did AMAT make it onto the lists of SSB and Lehman's fav stocks for the coming year? These guys aren't the greatest predictors of the future, but looking at the historical gains of their favorites, they do a pretty good job. We have seen many push-outs during the last year. When things turn, we will see pull-ins. That is why FY99 eps predictions are meaningless in this opaque environment. BTW, if you truly believe the latter statement to be true, why are you posting on the AMAT board when you could be researching stock that won't be dead money? BK

To: Rick who wrote (21248)	7/9/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Rick,>I think you're talking yourself into holding onto a poor performer. Cut your losses and move to something with growth potential over the next year.< Thanks for your feedback. I have substantial shares of AMAT at a cost of $16.6181 per share. This amounts to a 81% gain in one year and nine months. I will be happy to wait another year plus until AMAT reaches $100 which will give me approximately a 502% gain over the years. Lester E and others on this site have done even better. My approach is to buy low and sell high. I am just using the "KISS" procedure of, "keep it simple stupid." The Dorsey Wright Point and Figure Charting procedure has helped me to do such. This site gives us SI'ers, along with our individual the opportunity for additional research and feedback. Then, each of us must make our own investment strategies. Thanks for your contribution. Just my opinions. Paul V.