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Technology Stocks : Ballard Power -world leader zero-emission PEM fuel cells -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott Troy Munroe who wrote (2877)	7/9/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5827

I have a couple of problems in justifying the valuation of Ballard 1) The auto industry is highly competitive and amongst their vendors only those with strong stomachs and a edge survive. While fuel cells have certian sex appeal it will take propierty property, manufacturing strength and efficiency as well as customer appeal (Price???, features and performance)at the consumer level to drive demand. Given the faraway goals here and the fact that some big players could get in line it does seem a stretch at this point to bank on Ballard, let alone the technology. 2) At their current valuation they have to make 40-100 aftertax to justify a 2 bil market cap. What are the chances that that will exceed 40-100 mil in earnings in 5-10 years? I simply don't think the upside potential justifies the downside risk. See quoted material from a July 6th Forbes article below: "Ballard Power Systems. Isabelle bought this developer of fuel cells three years ago at less than $ 3 while at Pioneer. Last month, with the stock at $ 45, he sold the stock short. Notwithstanding a ringing endorsement from Daimler-Benz, which invested $ 450 million, Isabelle thinks the market value of $ 2.2 billion is an awful lot for a company that has no meaningful revenues and won't have them for several years." 3) This play looks too much like Presstek, Orbital and other pot of gold at the rainbow manufacturing plays of recent times.