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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (25416)	7/9/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Here is a comparative chart of HAL, SLB, and TDW going back to 1978. These stocks had a huge downdraft in 1984-1985 that dwarfs the current weakness. Can someone explain what happened and indicate whether there is any relevance for today's situation? tscn.com

To: waverider who wrote (25416)	7/10/1998 12:50:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Diamond H .... averaging down etc. Point well taken; however I am at my last level of averaging down. I have limited funds left for perhaps additional buys on EVI, DO or FGII on any major move downward from here 15% +/- I meant to say ''in the money calls'' and far out - Dec. Jan. or LEAPS. - definitely NOT out of the money calls. I would rather average down to where I am within 10% of the current prices in my core holdings versus trying to time the market and trade in & out. Just fits my style better and there are enough statistics bearing out the buy & hold - with some averaging down on dips vs. market timing/trading; that I'm comfortable with where I'm at overall. I also do not see any possible way that the ''majors'' have more than 7-10% downside from here - just no possible way. They are not going to lose money; the bar has been lowered and niches like the deep drillers have strong earnings and fundamentals that should embarrass the majority of the markets companies and sectors. I would never chase/average down for instance on a stock like YAHOO; I just mathematically and market momentum-wise do see a floor here. Untill I see the math change - I'll average down...the numbers will NOT be that bad - it's not like the majority of these companies will be posting losses. I am very, very comfortable holding DO, EVI, FGII, MDCO,CDG, VRC, RIG, OMNI,FLC,SLB etc. at todays prices, for a while in a classic buy and hold... I firmly believe we are at or very close to ''price disparity '' levels compared to the DOW or other sectors where the PE valuation will encourage strong sector rotation after this upcoming round of earnings releases. The analysts have revised earnings downward to where only the managerial inept will fail to meet estimates. The ''majors'' like RIG, DO, FLC, CDG, EVI, FGII etc. will comfortably meet estimates.We will benefit by strong short covering - the risk vs. reward scenario is just no longer worth it; given the probable return of crude to historic price levels near-midterm. We will see some analyst upgrades after Q2 earnings and if we get any good crude news/OPEC #'s etc. we will see a steady move forward. While this alone will not be the catalyst for a ''turn on a dime'' rebound; it will IMHO be the end of the selloff. We will see a steady rise in crude and I also expect positive OPEC #'s and reduced crude supply levels as well. I also think there is a very strong possibility that within 18-24 months we could see a ''rubberband'' effect in a huge spike up in demand; due to dynamic Asian / Eastern Europe/Worldwide demand recovery and there will not be the supply glut to contend with; if E&P projects were (are) cut and the infrastructure is not in place to meet the demand we have limited numbers of Rigs in the Land & Jack-up markets here and with foreign E&P being substantially reduced - the stage is set for a dynamic increase in crude prices. The deepwater projects take such a long time to bring online that the capacity will not be in place to meet demand IMHO. I also believe that the institutions believe the fundamentals are here but realize that new market dynamics in how crude prices are trader driven versus suppply driven will have to return to a level playing field. Remember the Saudi Oil Ministers veiled threat to the traders ... that a silent alliance with nonpublic production cuts may catch them holding the bag and forever change their ''manipulation'' tatics....