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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21327)	7/9/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: Henry Eichorszt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

From Briefing-Brief:No news and little action in the chip equipment industry... Rumors circulating that Applied Materials (AMAT) will issue an earnings warning in the days to come... Given status as group leader such an announcement could hamper the entire industry... However, much of the bad news already priced in so any weakness will be limited and short-lived.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21327)	7/9/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 70976

Justa, Even assuming AMAT does pre-announce, the rumors have been flowing this week, which is why we are seeing downward pressure on the stock. The other day it was the only one in my portfolio negative. If AMAT does fall short a la KLAC, what should we expect, an implosion to the 12 range?!?! Look at the chart of KLAC and you'll see the news really wasn't that much of a shocker. Truth be told, most of the bears on the thread talk of asia as if they are privvy to some information when in fact it has already been discounted. BTW, the bears on the thread are not true bears as you stated. If AMAT is going to 12 or even the teens, why aren't you bears shorting? Jacob, Teri, care to answer???? I suppose I should expect the answer that "we are all long-term bulls," a common refrain among our bears, who for some unknown reason, refuse to take a large position inaccordance with their views. Personally, I like the free exchange of info, but when I see Teri post bearish news only, (yes, Teri, believe it or not you do) it appears on the surface as if you are trying to talk the stock down. Trying to scare off potential buyers??? I have no idea. The fact remains though this is currently a one-way thread. BK

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21327)	7/9/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Justa, well said. This darn stock right now is not co-operating with anybody. Too high for the closet bulls (love that term <g>) and too low for the real bull(s). GM

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21327)	7/9/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dammm I find myself agreeing with JustAwerkenstiff.... It is absolutely true that it is long term bulls looking for discount prices that has kept AMAT-at these lofty levels.... but as someone once said its all relative... there is obviously some bad news in the price... otherwise we'd be knock knock knocking on 54's door.... Did any of you get to go there, and wasn't it a wild ride... I fell asleep on the floor and got woken up by the cleaners.... thankfully when it came to AMAT I'd learned my lesson and I sold.... but now I've mixed my metaphors and confused souls let me add... there's a kind of bad news that's never in the price... really bad news... And it is my contention that AMAT's bully pulpit has worked against them this time and they are hurting baddest... because they didn't see it coming... and spent on bob and stevie and plant they didn't need... my idea goes like this... we at AMAT who get 50% of our revenues from Japan and Taiwian, and 20% from intc, and 80% from new fabs, committed a billion in '97 to expand production... this expansion was based on the false premise that the digital age was unstoppable, and that contries were going to subsidize unprofitable production forever... that the welfare state of chip production was a given.... but in fact we found that this was not the case, and multi-billion dollar boondoggles are now passe... and orders are now below the level of '96... we therefore write off a substantial portion of this investment, and further throw our hands in the air and say we messed up... orders are now 40%$ below this time last year and revenues have declined 25% on a consecutive basis.... we have no visibility for 1999 at present but its gonna change one day, and when it does we'll tell you... meanwhile we're cutting costs where we can, and laying off all these workers we just trained at great expense, and taking additional charges to cover both.... we made a few cents this quarter because be ate into our backlog and took the write-offs, but obviously we can't do this forever, because eventually even Brian and our friends at Lehman will smell a rat, so we do have to fess up and admit we won't make a bean in the 4th quarter, in fact we might even lose a few cents.... god bless America we love you to the bang bang --- as the song goes..... hey it might not happen, but I really can't see what's gonna stop it..... my best friend just came back from Taiwian.... he works for a big media co that had an unbelievable and supposedly unbreakable contract to provide multi-channel programming in that market ---- guess what --- it got canceled.... no money is no money no matter what the paper says......