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To: K. M. Strickler who wrote (50545)7/10/1998 7:47:00 AM
From: Lee  Respond to of 176387
 
Hi Ken,..Re:<<Are you still recommending AMD for your investors?>>


LOL! That was a wicked curve ball. <VBG>

Regards,

Lee



To: K. M. Strickler who wrote (50545)7/10/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
**OT**

I bought AMD on monday looking for an earnings related rally.
I got the rally, but it came before the report.
I think the report was reported very poorly, Most analysts expect the number to be way below their published number. But that was not in print so when the ## came out only 10-15% worse than what they really expected, it was reported as 2X as bad as they expected.

I think part of that may be an effort to get the market thinking that AMD is not competing that will with INTC. But bottom line, they sold 2.7 MM Processors that INTC did not sell. That is ultimately a probelm for INTC.

So I was short INTC and Long AMD and it backfired for all the wrong reasons. that is what I get for thinking to much. My INTC short is but a fraction of what it was, My adjusted cost is over $120. So I will let the little Position rally to keep me paying attention and I will get agressive on around the report. though at this time, I am unsure of what that action will be.
The other question is what to do with AMD. Most likely it is dead money as there is no reason at this point for anyone to buy the stock. On the other hand, I see little risk from here, BV is in the $13.5 area so there should be some support about 10% below here.

I think they should try to sell some of their PLD business to the big PLD guys, LLTC or XLNX or some one like that. Some thing like that would be a good catalyst for the stock and fix some of thier balance sheet problems. Plus it is their other semi businesses that are the biggest problems for them.

They dumped the last of their .35 inventory at $40-50 a chip and that hurt ASP's for CPU's, but it helped that 2.7 MM unit number. They expect 3.5 MM units for the third Q Plus IBM Microelectronics is supposed to have wafer starts for AMD this quarter.
More chips that INTC could have sold.

This got kind of long, But sometimes typing these things out helps me organise my own thoughts.

Jim