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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 18acastra who wrote (1623)	7/10/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2542

Looks like the ECM leaders kicking up a bit. Solectron and Flextronics seem to be strengthening nicely, and today Sanmina rebounded a bit. The rest of the ECM sector is littered with injured stocks. The board makers like Hadco, Praegitzer, Merix, DII have gotten hammered as foreign boards have caused big pricing declines on their products. The smaller ECMs have been pounded as well. But maybe we are starting to see the turn in here. I know I've been calling for this turn for some time, but I expect the assemblers worst news should all be out by September, and then the impact of the latest barrage of outsourcing deals will start to hit home. I'm especially intrigued by the strengthening of FLEXF going into the earnings report. The stocks has held up well despite the news that they have lost a customer. I posted some comments on the Flextronics thread. Jabil is certainly lagging the best assemblers right now, but I can see that given the company has got a poor earning report to get past. The next report for Jabil won't be out until sometime in the last half of October, its their year end report for the year ended August 31. They will report a significant sequential decline in EPS. But for folks interested in my bet as the best chance for an ECM stock to double in the next 12 months, Jabil should start to see significant earnings acceleration starting with the NovQ and really pick up steam in the Feb and May Qs of next year. Given the extraordinary volatility in that stock, the next 12 months could be interesting. But I'll admit the window of buying opportunity could be open for another 2-3 months. Paul