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To: Berney who wrote (3214)7/11/1998 8:05:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Berney; RE:" Sectors as Funds "

The FSRBX Regional Banks consistently under-performs the Wilshire Finance Index (the benchmark for BKX.X Banks, XBD.X Brokers and IUX.X Insurance sectors), TB. But in the main, I'm warming up to the idea of using a sector fund as a vehicle for investing and/or trading in a sector index.

According to the fund performance info on Yahoo!, the top ten sub-sectors of the Financial/Services Sector over the past 5 years have been: FSLBX Brokers; FSRBX and FRBAX John Hancock Regional Banks; and FSVLX FidelitySelect Home Finance - another mid-cap banking set that includes...

WAMU DME AHM COFI GPT TCB ASFC PHBK CFB FP among its holdings.

I note that the IUX.X Insurance sub-sector appears to have consistently under-performed the brokers and regional banks sub-sectors in the overall NF.X NYSE Financial Index.

An interesting, mechanical investing tactic with a backtest that consistently beats the SPY S&P-500 Index benchmark is to purchase FSLBX Brokers whenever its chart's 14-day stochastics show it to be over-sold. BTW, this also works with FSPHX FidelitySelect Health Care (drugz).

Sector funds' charts are smoother than sector index charts. They are closing (settlement) daily prices, and so have less noise (being line charts). Because funds are "managed" sector indices, they exhibit what feels like "damping" in the way they move compared to the raw sector index itself, or any component therein.

Displaying the sector funds' weekly charts generates an even more meaningful, though infrequent stochastic trigger (as well as weekly candlestick sentiments from the daily settlement data) for brokers/regional banks and drugz market sectors. Perhaps a confluence of weekly and daily triggers on a sector fund could be interpreted as an opportunity to move 10% of that sector's kapital allocation into sector index calls to amplify leverage, (or to roll them over).

Any conservative/periodic T/A tactic in these two funds/sectors will probably back-test well because their growth has been consistent. Indeed, random buys appear to meet SPY and exceed DIA. Such is the effect of good fundamentals, n'est-ce pas ?

-Steve



To: Berney who wrote (3214)7/14/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
TB; RE:" CYC.X "

Berney, the CYC.X Cyclicals Index are making noise again, showing some Morning Stars on the equity and commodity charts.

-Steve