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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john dodson who wrote (21479)	7/10/1998 7:49:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

John, I think AMAT has a market cap of somewhere around $12B. BB

To: john dodson who wrote (21479)	7/10/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

John: > where's that bottom? I am planning to start buying at $25 and continue till $21-$22/shr. This will be your golden opportunity of this century and next (IMHO of course). As for AMAT hitting $12/shr! Sure, nothing is impossible. However, if AMAT hits $12/shr then that will be the day we all know for sure that hell has come to indeed freeze over and over and over! Regards, Addi Jamshidi

To: john dodson who wrote (21479)	7/10/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: P.T.Burnem	Respond to of 70976

Now, where's that bottom? Chances are, we'll see a short-term bottom Monday morning. The extent of the damage will be heavily influenced by the outcome of the Japanese elections. Regardless, I'll be buying at the open on Monday. PTB

To: john dodson who wrote (21479)	7/11/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: jelrod3	Respond to of 70976

John: Please see my Post # 20225, which pretty well nails it: To: shane forbes (20216 ) From: jelrod3 Thursday, Jun 11 1998 11:20PM ET Reply # 20225 of 21564 Morgan Said: "Japan is the key." AMAT will be down, and down for some time to come, because of Japan and other Asian markets. With all the crummy news coming out today and over the past few days about Japan's economy, and the probability that it will slide even further, there can be no doubt that AMAT is going to be hurting over the next quarter for sure, and maybe the next several quarters thereafter. Combine the news re Japan with the news re other Asian markets, and throw in the fact of overcapacity in semiconductors across the board, and it is easy to see that AMAT is going to go lower. My model shows AMAT going to $20 to $23 in the near term. Look for a warning during the period July 15 to July 30. This is when a preannoucement will come. Then we could go decidedly below $20. I hate to even say what this number is. Now let's assess things in view of the warning just given by AMAT on 7-10-98. It looks like AMAT is on track to generate FY98 revenues of between $4.0 to $4.1 billion tops. This translates to about $11.29 per share, give or take a couple of pennies. If you look at historic Price to Sales Ratios, you will see that AMAT has traded as low as .9x in the past 5 years. I do not think it will trade this low, but a PSR of 2.0 is likely, yielding a share price of around $22 per share as a likely target. A pessimistic view is that AMAT could trade down to its 5 year average low PSR of 1.3. This gets you to a price of $14.68. Possible? Yes, but not likely, in my opinion. But this could be considered the "downside risk" assuming continued deterioration in AMAT's market for equipment. A more likely "downside" number is around $17 to $18 per share, based on a PSR of 1.6x (1.6 x $11.29 = $17.97). Nothing scientific about any of this, save and except the age old admonition that history has a way of repeating itself, and those that tend to forget the lessons of history....well, you know the rest. Regards.