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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1390)	7/11/1998 9:05:00 AM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

"Over the short term, the market should have another up-move during the summer, probably not making new highs in the most important indices." Bobby, the above is a quote from Dohmen. Since the Nasdaq is now making new highs almost daily, I wonder which indices he considered important. Al Goldman of EG Edwards was on CNBC yesterday and he looked for a sizzling summer market with a possible 9600 to 9800 Dow attained this year. That would be another 8%. Goldman said something very interesting, that Asia would recover far faster than anyone is willing to contemplate and that the miracle would soon be revived. This is a far cry from Dohman. Well, off to revel in catastrophe. --Al

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1390)	7/11/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Vieserre	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

Thank you for the link which I will subsequently read. The greatest risk of global depression IMO may not be because exports to the Asian countries are curtailed or because of the slum in commodity prices. The lower Asian market is simply not big enough, Japan was never known for its imports, and the US market which is the main economic driver is basically self-sustaining. Fed Governor Roger Ferguson stated a few days ago that he sees no threat of deflation in the U.S. But if Asian countries, as well as Russia, are not able to pay dollar debts to foreign banks and other foreign lenders - this may in turn affect the lenders domestic ability to loan or pay others or in a worse case cause bankruptcy. Ah, that is the rub. And that is why I believe the IMF as a cornerstone to its lending policy has conditions to protect the payment of such debts. Vieserre