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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trakker who wrote (57118)	7/11/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58324

<< - how much is an installed base of over 10 million users worth? >> Absolutely nothing. 0. not if most of these users already have a half dozen disks or so. I'd be willing to bet ANYONE here that a purchaser of a ZIP drive buys 90% of all the disks he's EVER going to use within 1 month of the purchase of the drive. These means that Iomega needs to KEEP SELLING DRIVES at a rapid pace to keep selling disks. Like I stated before, your 'dream model' is not reality. The 'dream model' states that the purchaser of a ZIP drive buys a constant number of disks per unit time while he owns the drive. In other words, the longer someone has owned a ZIP drive, the more disks he is going to have. This is NOT AT ALL true. Tie ratio is really a function of the 'type' of user. You need to catagorize the users as follows: EARLY ADOPTERS = dozen disks, then stop TECH HEADS = dozen disks, then stop BUSINESS = more resembles the razor blade AFTER MARKET = 6 disks, then stop OEM 'JOE SIX PACK' = 1 disk, then stop. Notice that with the above catagorization, Iomega would have experienced a HUGE tie ratio as ZIPs came out, then it would tail off AND KEEP TAILING OFF as OEMs take hold. My revenue/earnings models reflect this model. Not the razor blade model. It would scare the living daylights out of you if I posted the results of my model here... kp PS: My model may not be perfect, and has some guesses/assumptions, but it sure hasn't failed me yet. Remember, EVERY SINGLE ANALYST was wrong on this stock. Only Herb, Rock, and I have been correct. And you lambast all of us..