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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (5011)	7/11/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18928

Bruce, I did a study of the 9 of the 10 possible stocks in the Offshore Drilling Bits universe and found these results for a $10k initial investment, 25% initial Cash level and $1000 minimum trade: FGII - 7/22/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $22,252 vs. B&H - $22,646 EVI - 2/03/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $15,077 vs. B&H - $12,016 VRC - 2/03/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $17,853 vs. B&H - $14,178 RIG - 2/03/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $15,668 vs. B&H - $14,333 RON - 2/03/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $15,725 vs. B&H - $13,594 CXIPY- 1/29/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $18,910 vs. B&H - $20,307 MIND - 7/22/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $17,081 vs. B&H - $11,284 CDG - 4/03/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $15,133 vs. B&H - $10,625 DO - 2/03/97 - 7/8/97 AIM - $13,617 vs. B&H - $11,404 B&H (buy and hold) assumes 100% of the initial investment is in stock. As you can see if the stock moves around quite a bit and then fails to rise, the results using the AIM system are superior. The one thing to mention is that the results are obviously skewed by the recent downturn in the group, but the model I was using showed AIM making selective buys and sells at almost exactly the correct times over the past year plus in the data. Of course everyone should realize this is still just an exercise. I don't have any dead presidents riding on the outcome (yet). Looks like you may be in for a little buying right off the bat. I suspect that FGII will have a buy next week as it is less than $1 above the AIM buy point and VRC is certainly within a possible move on a daily basis. The others??? Bruce, I also figured out how to automatically calculate the buy/sell points from Bill's spreadsheet which eliminated the one minor drawback the spreadsheet had. It uses the minimum trade $$ level only as a first cut. Since we started each stock in the portfolio out at $20,000, the minimum trade is $1,000. If/when we start to show a profit, I suspect I'm going to have to adjust that up a bit although in these days of $12 commissions, that might not be worth the trouble. BTW, although these stocks are very volatile, the Buy SAFE optimum never lower than 7% and the Sell SAFE optimum answers were often near the highest levels that were allowed in my optimization technique. Am I using a strange subset of stocks to look at, or is something going on here that I don't understand yet [quite possible]??? Is there someplace on the net I can read about the Portfolio Control number and its implications in the buy/sell decisions. I can see mechanically how it works, but I'm looking for a rationale about why it should be done this way. ---- Dave