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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IMPRISTlNE who wrote (10092)	7/12/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 164684

re: 84 BILLION DOLLAR BOOK MARKET Question, Is it possible to have a 50 percent share of this market?...ONLINE? Yes, God Bless America, a land where less than 50% of households own a PC. Actually the home PC penetration rate has hovered at around 40% for a couple of years, and I think recently finally edged up to 45%. ....And don't make the mistake of assuming that every PC owning household has an internet connection. .... And don't make the mistake of assuming that all households which have a PC and and internet connection are readers. .... And don't make the mistake of assuming that all households which have a PC and an internet connection and are readers, will be buying books off the internet. .... And don't make the mistake of assuming that all households which have a PC and an internet connection and are readers and buy books online, will be buying exclusively from Amazon. Sounds like you need to do a little more research.

To: IMPRISTlNE who wrote (10092)	7/13/1998 5:49:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Let's draw an optimistic scenario for AMZN Annual sales in millions '98 - 600 '99 - 1200 (What were Barnes&Noble sales in '94) '00 - 1800 '01 - 2500 (What were Barnes&Noble sales in '97) '02 - 3400 '03 - 4500 '04 - 6000 (Growth slowing being limited by market size) '05 - 7000 Gross Margin = 20% constant. Gross profit in 2005= $1.4B Operating profit in 2005 = $700MM Net = $400MM P/E= 15 Market Cap= $6B For annual return of 20% compounded, assuming no dilution, today's market cap should be $1.67B or $33 3/4 a share. AND THIS IS OPTIMISTIC ATG