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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gil Gilbertson who wrote (21691)	7/13/1998 2:24:00 AM
From: Rick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The optimism on this board is fascinating. Here we have a stock that has been in a sustained downtrend, a known cyclical industry only months into a downtrend, earnings forecasts trending down, layoffs projected, and a very uncertain level of future earnings (or losses as the case will likely be based on forward looking revenues and layoff charges), etc.......and yet we have people talking about buying on the basis of it being a $100 stock in a year. Anybody talking about $100 in a year is almost certainly in serious denial and apparently unable to deal with today's facts - more comfortable in the fantasy world of what might be after this difficult period. I have little clue as to how low it will go tomorrow, but if you're buying it's simply a gamble as the visibility of earnings for several quarters is nil. Unless there is a complete panic aided by a general market fall, it is unlikely this stock is a buy tomorrow as whatever price is settled on will likely be supported by short covering - once this dries up, who is going to want to own this stock ? Anyway, I am sure there will be a level at which it is a good value, but history show that the cyclicals always fall below "fair value" during bad times, and it looks like bad times for the industry are at a relatively early stage. Time will tell. Rick.