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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (21736)	7/13/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 70976

I must admit I'm very surprised. Applied warns orders are way down, ensuring little or no profits 2H98. Every semi-equip has said about the same thing. Among 40 CEOs, the most optimistic said the upturn would be in 12 months (mid-99). Noone has any visibility. Noone has escaped the carnage. EPS estimates for 1999 are all over the map, but every one of the many recent revisions is down. No semi sector or region is buying equipment. And AMAT's daily range today is exactly the same as last friday's. 26 holds, with room to spare. Maybe Brian finally is right. Maybe all the bad news really is in the stock. I look at the numbers, and the historical patterns, and I expect AMAT to now be at a P/S of 1.5 or 1.0, but it keeps on not happening. Should I take the money I've recently made riding INTC from 69 to 82, and put it back into AMAT? Or should I leave it in INTC, and wait till early 1999 to switch? When should I quit arguing with Mr. Market?