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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/13/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: Vartan	Respond to of 70976

jacob, >I must admit I'm very surprised.< Me too. But is it my ears or the fat lady is still snoring in the corner?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/14/1998
From: john dodson	Respond to of 70976

Be patient. Give AMAT time to "adjust" to the gloom and doom. It will eventually go lower. How much lower is anybody's guess, but lower 20's still seems very reasonable. Dunno about INTC. It continually zigs when I think it's gonna zag. -John Dodson

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/14/1998 12:06:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I have been impressed with your perceptiveness in the past. Your admission of surprise, if anything, strengthens your reputation. Normally I don't like to make price predictions. Here's the exception to the rule: I expect AMAT to stay in a trading range between 26 and 38 till year end. In mid-December it will probably be near where it is now. (learned that from Big Bucks). As for Brian maybe being right: we all have the same evidence in front of us, but perceive it differently, according to our hopes. That's human. AMAT is better known in the investor community now than it was in 1996. The mantra that in 2-3 years it should more than double has become folklore. Maybe that's what is keeping the price up - against cold logic. Gottfried I'll e-mail an article about Intel.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/14/1998 4:12:00 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Your questions were directed to Gottfried but this is what I can say:--- Follow Mr. Market!... INTC may report lower earnings but does the Past matter much to the Market?... CPQs inventory problems are being solved, does it not give us a hint for the future of PCs and Chips?... Christmas is nearing, Windows 98 is here... Hold on to your INTCs, AMAT's turn will follow later... I know you rely on the Fundamental in your investment decisions, so did I in the past. I even used Technical Analysis but lost a lot of money using them. I have nothing against Fundamental and Technical and I use them together with Sentimental to enhance my Yoyo indicator... Early last year I caused a lot of eyebrows to raise when, by just using my Instincts, I predicted AMAT will gain 250% in 1997. One even offered to sell me a Crystal Ball for 1,000 dollars!... What happened is that the stock did gained 200% at one time --- which was close enough. If I relied on the then 5-yr PE of 20 for the stock, I would have predicted only 60 for the stock!... Here is a Post that answers why I don't rely on PEs and Charts alone anymore:--- Message 722771

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/14/1998 8:31:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, there was a great article that I read about the 4 phases of bad debt: they are denial, panic, confrontation and absorption. I think Japan has been lingering in the denial and panic phases for years. Yesterday's market reaction may point to a new regime ready to confront the debt problem. This could be view as positive and therefore the market reaction. The article went on to say that the absorption phase is the most painful, when all pass sins are exposed and dealt with. The auditors, though not enough of them, are looking at the books of the banks now with a September target report time. Finally, we (the world) should be able to quantify, with some degree of accuracy, the magnitude of the Japanese bad debt problem. At the same time, it should shed light on same for loans to all the ailing nations. This data hopefully will help us gauge the timing of recovery. Ramsey

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/14/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Here's one thought that may help explain why the stock didn't go down harder yesterday, though all but one of us are well aware that one day does not make a market. Who are these brain-dead newcomers who acted as if we predicted that AMAT would trade at 12 yesterday... Sorry, but if you ask me, that was deserved. (You asked for it, you got it sort of thing). Back to that reason now, prices are set at the margin, meaning the small percentage of people who were either ready to buy or sell yesterday, basically set the price yesterday. Those people who months ago decided "there is trouble in Paradise, and maybe not a small bit of it" have long since been out of the stock, and this reduced the number of sellers. Now we have a newish group of "true-believers" who are focusing their sights (and expectations) on the stock's action last year and looking for a repeat performance. I guess many things could happen, but here are two. (1) The new "true-believers" will be proved right. The industry will miraculously overcome its overcapacitied state and the stock will go straight to the moon, proving all the skeptics (yes and that definitely includes me) to be completely wrong. (2) The new set of "true-believers" gets their "lesson by fire" as it relates to investing in cyclical companies that haven't grown since 1996, whose customers are hurting and whose rates of capital investment, which in some cases were as high as 100%, are largely considered (at least by those who pondered the issue more than a picosecond) unsustainable. In this scenario, AMAT is now trading in the middle, as in this is not the bottom or top, but the middle. And the next step is lower, who knows exactly where... my guess is in the 12 to 23 range. Some of the risks today in my view are (1) market risk - S&P 500 PE of 28ish; this market is pricier than the '87 market and if it corrects in a similar manner as it did that year, we will have a number of "pundits" who will be telling us they "told us so", and that is mostly not true. Most of them didn't say a word. (2) Japan/Asia risk -- which happened to represent the "growth" portion of the semicondutor end market, and who are currently flailing away aimlessly having no idea where to begin solving their problems. (3) Semi-equipment market risk, that we are heading through the valley but the depth of the valley is not yet known. Point here is: it could be really nasty, bloody etal and drag on longer than anyone expects, or it could be like '96 which was somewhat minor. Indications right now are that it's significantly worse than the '96 downturn and we still have no idea how bad it will get. Maybe I'm just too conservative, but under these conditions, buying hard and heavy into this atmosphere seems like kamikaze behavior. Lastly, I believe in your bottom indicators... still. And they continue to say... we ain't there yet. Excuse the randomness, and it's all JMO, Teri

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21746)	7/14/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob.... I'm not.... in fact I would have been suprized to see the stock collapse, because the hope that is keeping the market up is that Japan is gonna fix itself in the next six months, and that dram has bottomed, and blahhhhhh.... I posted to buxx and teri yesterday that AMAT could even pop a bit when they make 19cents and beat projections by 1 cent... but the real story will be told when intc announces today that it will retain margins buy cutting capex, when AMAT takes a 250M charge against it's own mothballed plant... and when we see AMAT's cashfow hemmorraging.... we will see 20... and maybe 15 ----- 12's a stretch given asset inflation