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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: umbro who wrote (10265)	7/14/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options update Implied vol. dropped a bit, as it usually does when a stock or index trades up. I show an ave. implied vol. of 93%, vs. 97% yesterday, and 100% on Friday. The July straddle, which only has three days left will cost roughly $8.50, whith an implied vol. of 88% (though vols. don't mean that much with only a few days left til expiration). The at-the-money put/call ratio (july 115's) is 0.29, which is decidely bullish. Usually, extreme ratios like that are interpreted in a contrarian fashion (sans news), with the expectation that the stock will reverse. The breakeven on a straddle is 106.50 and 123.50 by Friday's close. Here are the option stats. for the 90 to 140 strikes: Options Forecast for: JUL put price: 109.82 OI = 12561 VOL = 4406 call price: 116.29 OI = 16503 VOL = 4368 consensus: 114.96 R = 0.8 R = 1.0 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 94.26 OI = 6237 VOL = 1296 call price: 128.09 OI = 7062 VOL = 1250 consensus: 115.03 R = 0.9 R = 1.0 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 88.24 OI = 1456 VOL = 616 call price: 129.03 OI = 4522 VOL = 647 consensus: 121.59 R = 0.3 R = 1.0 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 82.11 OI = 1414 VOL = 90 call price: 139.42 OI = 2731 VOL = 126 consensus: 119.71 R = 0.5 R = 0.7 net long/short: 0.92 mil. In spite of a wicked up day, the put/call volume ratios remain quite neutral, with no particular bias. The Oct. Open Interest (OI) ratio at 0.3 is rather heavily skewed to the call side, but that might be because investors that are long the stock are selling calls (it's typical to sell a few months out, esp. if one is interested in hedging downside risk). More telling, the Jan. volume was also bullish (at 0.7). It would seem a few options traders are bullish about AMZN in the intermediate term.