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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: umbro who wrote (10370)	7/15/1998 6:03:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options update (7/15) As expected, the implied vols. are dropping fast on Jul options. The July 110 straddle trades at $7, which gives a breakeven at 105.50 and 119.50. Still if we see these intraday swings as we've been seeing, simply legging out of both sides works well. We're so close to expiration though, I'd take a close look at the Aug. options instead. Implied vols. don't mean much on the July's, but the model shows them at 83%. The Aug's are 100%, the Oct's 93%, and the Jan's are 84%. If you want an "edge" look at buying the in the money Jan options and selling the Aug's at the money. The Jan's are probably fairly priced, given AMZN's historical volatility, or just a little high. Looks like the market has priced in some post expiration earnings announcement fireworks. Options Forecast for: JUL put price: 109.06 OI = 13747 VOL = 2805 call price: 114.02 OI = 14204 VOL = 3252 consensus: 112.34 R = 1.0 R = 0.9 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 92.14 OI = 6987 VOL = 541 call price: 128.12 OI = 7360 VOL = 890 consensus: 113.43 R = 0.9 R = 0.6 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 88.99 OI = 1117 VOL = 109 call price: 125.25 OI = 2658 VOL = 255 consensus: 117.38 R = 0.4 R = 0.4 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 78.44 OI = 1079 VOL = 76 call price: 136.45 OI = 1634 VOL = 135 consensus: 118.78 R = 0.7 R = 0.6 net long/short: 0.29 mil.