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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: umbro who wrote (10510)	7/17/1998 3:11:00 AM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN option update (7/16) Only one day left in the July options. The 110 straddle costs $5.20, so breaks even at 109.2 and and 117.6. Amazing how AMZN has traded in such a tight range (though the 109 area continues to be supprot). The JUL options are trading with an implied vol. of 67%, AUG is 99%, OCT is 95%, and JAN is 86%. Buying the i-t-m Jan's and selling the Aug's seems to still offer an edge, though the market continues to price in the anticipated earnings volatility. Options Forecast for: JUL put price: 110.47 OI = 13171 VOL = 2721 call price: 113.77 OI = 16433 VOL = 2755 consensus: 113.40 R = 0.8 R = 1.0 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 95.53 OI = 5306 VOL = 425 call price: 126.97 OI = 7958 VOL = 991 consensus: 116.13 R = 0.7 R = 0.4 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 89.40 OI = 1065 VOL = 24 call price: 143.12 OI = 134 VOL = 23 consensus: 93.99 R = 7.9 R = 1.0 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 79.50 OI = 512 VOL = 18 call price: 151.38 OI = 679 VOL = 58 consensus: 119.52 R = 0.8 R = 0.3 The put/call ratio is high on the Oct options, very high. No real explaination, except this analsysis only looks at actively traded options (more 10 contracts volume, and more than 10 contract in OI), so it may be biased by active put trading on a day when the stock price didn't move much. If this high put ratio holds for a few days, we should take notice, and intepret this as bullish (from a contrarian point of view).